Czech President Petr Pavel stated that Kiev lacked the necessary manpower for a successful counteroffensive against Russia.
According to Czech President Petr Pavel, Ukraine’s highly anticipated 2023 counteroffensive against Russian forces was destined to fail from the outset.
In an interview with European Pravda published on Saturday, Pavel, the Czech Republic’s former top military commander, expressed his concerns that Ukraine, facing dwindling foreign aid and severe personnel shortages, would be unable to reclaim territory “without huge losses.”
He stated, “That is why my quite realistic assessment was that this conflict, without changing the [existing] parameters, will most probably end up with some compromise. And now we are heading to such a compromise.”
Pavel further elaborated on his belief that Kiev’s much-publicized 2023 counteroffensive was inherently flawed.
Pavel asserted, “Even before Ukraine started its big counteroffensive two years ago, it was not well equipped to really succeed. For a successful offensive, the military theory says that you need a ratio of at least two – or preferably five – to one.”
At that time, the force ratio between Ukraine and Russia was still in favor of Russia. So it was quite obvious that the counteroffensive will not be as successful in liberating all of the territories.
The former general suggested that Kiev and its Western allies must accept the reality that “part of the territory of Ukraine is and will for some time be temporarily occupied by Russia.” He emphasized, however, that the EU should not legitimize Russia’s claim over Crimea or the Donbass regions.
According to Pavel, the EU must maintain its support for Ukraine to prevent further territorial losses and to “create conditions for a ceasefire and subsequent peace.”
Ukraine initiated its unsuccessful offensive in early June 2023, deploying newly formed brigades and Western-trained personnel operating Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks. The troops launched attacks on Russian positions along multiple front lines but were unable to breach heavily fortified areas and dense minefields, resulting in significant casualties and the loss of Western-supplied equipment. The Ukrainian army managed to seize a few small villages, all of which have since been retaken by Russian forces.
“`