British regulator indicates VPNs complicate tracking of illegal gambling

(AsiaGameHub) –   The Gambling Commission has acknowledged that a greater amount of unlicensed gambling activity might be concealed.

In the UK, the British Gambling Commission has issued a warning that the increasing adoption of virtual private networks (VPNs) is hindering the ability to accurately assess the scale of the illegal gambling market. In the regulator’s most recent update concerning trends and data analysis, Tim Livesley, who leads its Data Innovation Hub, pointed out that the introduction of the Online Safety Bill last year prompted many consumers to bypass restrictions on online activities.

He stated that the Gambling Commission had already “factored in an increase of 30 per cent” into its projections to account for black market traffic that is hidden by VPNs. However, the regulator now recognizes that since July 2025, “a larger proportion of web traffic could be concealed.”

The Gambling Commission considers web traffic estimates to be more effective for understanding trends rather than absolute traffic volumes, as they are subject to margins of error. It advises against relying on any single data source as definitive and is enhancing its methodology with additional data points, yet it still views web traffic to unlicensed gambling sites as a useful indicator of trends.

Data from the past two years indicated a continuation of fluctuating trends in estimated engagement with unlicensed sites (measured by time spent on site) but did not align with a seasonal pattern. An increase observed in the autumn of 2024 was not replicated by a similar rise in the same period of 2025. Furthermore, the overall trendline does not suggest consistent or sustained growth in consumer engagement over the 21 months of available data.

The Gambling Commission conducted further investigation by acquiring data on VPN usage from the communications authority Ofcom and the digital data firm Similarweb. The data from Ofcom revealed a sharp increase in VPN usage in July 2025, followed by a gradual decrease to a level approximately 40 per cent higher than previous levels. Data from Similarweb showed a similar pattern, though with a less pronounced initial surge.

The accompanying figure presents an updated trendline of engagement, incorporating the Gambling Commission’s VPN usage assumptions adjusted according to these scenarios. The data for July is associated with a wider confidence interval, which then stabilizes to a more consistent range after this date.

Livesley commented: “We are continuously working to enhance our methodology and are seeking input from other international regulators and licensed operators to help validate and improve existing data sources, as well as to identify additional datasets that can be used to deepen our understanding of the illegal market. We are also gathering more data on consumer engagement through the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB) and generating further insights via our Consumer Voice research program.

“We will be releasing further updates on our research, statistics, and data initiatives throughout the year. The Commission continues to prioritize illegal gambling, and we will also provide additional information on how we are expanding our disruption and enforcement activities and how we are measuring the impact of these investments.”