An analysis indicates that declining birth rates among native-born Britons, coupled with substantial immigration, are fueling a demographic shift.
A recent study suggests that White Britons are projected to become a minority within the UK in approximately four decades.
The UK has experienced significant legal and illegal immigration under successive governments, with a reported 906,000 new arrivals in 2023, according to The Telegraph. The 2022 census data showed that London and Birmingham already have populations where white individuals are not the majority.
The Telegraph cited an analysis by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University, predicting that the proportion of White Britons will decrease from the current 73% of the UK population to 57% by 2050. The study forecasts that they will become a minority by 2063, and potentially comprise only around 33% of the country’s population by the century’s end.
The analysis also projects that by the end of the century, six out of ten UK residents will be foreign-born or have at least one parent who is an immigrant. The proportion of Muslims in the UK population is anticipated to rise from the current 7% to 19.2% during the same timeframe.
Goodwin informed The Telegraph that his study considers migration patterns, as well as birth and death rates among various ethnic and religious groups, drawing on data from the Office for National Statistics and census information.
The study’s author stated that his findings raise “enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture.”
He also commented that the concerns potentially sparked by his study among many Britons “will need to be recognised, respected and addressed if the UK is to avoid considerable political turbulence and polarisation in the years and decades ahead.”