Hamas’s influence casts a shadow over Gaza elections as experts warn the vote could backfire

(SeaPRwire) –   On Saturday, residents of Deir al-Balah in Gaza will head to the polls to vote for new local leaders for the first time in 22 years — a step experts warn could give Hamas more space to sustain its influence, as the group refuses to abide by ceasefire disarmament requirements.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Digital that “holding elections in the Palestinian Authority at an inopportune time, when conditions remain uncertain, will result in Hamas winning electoral victories.”

Schanzer noted that the Bush administration’s 2006 push to support elections “resulted in Hamas securing electoral wins, which sparked a political standoff that eventually led to civil conflict,” and added that “extreme caution is essential when organizing elections in a region like Gaza, where Hamas holds extensive control and terrorist groups are still viewed as legitimate political actors.”

Gazan journalists and media workers continue to be labeled as members of terrorist groups after their deaths, underscoring the challenge of differentiating terrorist affiliates from ordinary civilians.

Four political parties are running in the Deir al-Balah election. Per reporting from the Center for Peace Communications, candidates were required to endorse the Palestine Liberation Organization and abide by its previously signed agreements, including recognizing the State of Israel and supporting a two-state solution.

Yet many observers are concerned that one of the participating parties, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, has ties to Hamas. Two of its candidates have been photographed alongside Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on X that “holding elections in Gaza at this moment is deeply reckless and irresponsible,” pointing out that “Gazans are being arrested, imprisoned, tortured, shot, and killed every day for social media posts or any remarks deemed critical of Hamas. These elections should be stopped and blocked from moving forward, as they interfere with the transition plan for Gaza that the Board of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza], and the international community have outlined — a plan where Hamas disarming and giving up its power is the first essential step.”

Hamas disarmament, a core requirement in the second phase of former President Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal, has not yet been completed. As of March, reports show that Hamas has strengthened its control over Gaza, continuing to levy taxes on local residents, build educational infrastructure, and deploy police across the territory it controls.

Schanzer stated that Hamas is unlikely to fully surrender its weapons. Should the group choose to do so, he noted, it “will attempt to draw distinctions between different types of arms,” potentially offering to hand over heavy weapons such as RPGs while retaining a large stockpile of automatic firearms.

Hamas has seemingly put forward a partial disarmament proposal. On April 19, The New York Times reported that two Hamas officials stated they would turn over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security agencies. When asked whether weapons from Hamas’s so-called military wing would be part of this handover, the officials “failed to give a clear response.”

Schanzer pushed back against assertions that Hamas’s political and military wings operate independently. “That is a falsehood. The notion that they are separate in any respect, or that there is a clear barrier between them, is ridiculous.” He explained that this is “a distinction invented by the West so that it can maintain political ties with Hamas or justify holding elections, and it is a mistake to embrace that false narrative.”

Schanzer argued that weakening Iran is critical to reducing Hamas’s influence. “I cannot overstate how significant the psychological impact would be if their primary sponsor were defeated on the battlefield,” he noted. “That would be a devastating blow to Hamas.”

With Israel controlling roughly 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas holding the remaining 47%, Schanzer said “we could continue to see Hamas’s control slip” during the “slow, steady process of Israel making territorial and operational gains on the ground.” He emphasized that patience is necessary, adding that “the foes of the U.S., Israel, and the West have a much slower timeline. They aim to outwait everyone because they know we want to move past this conflict.”

The Trump administration did not respond to Digital’s inquiries regarding whether a partial disarmament would meet its ceasefire requirements, or if the administration would take steps to delay the elections until Gaza achieves greater stability.