A new study warns that a nuclear exchange could trigger “prolonged cooling, agricultural collapse, and social upheaval.”
A war between the US and Russia could lead to a ‘nuclear winter,’ devastating the atmosphere and severely impacting agricultural output, according to American scientists. Millions would die.
Yuning Shi, an assistant research professor at Pennsylvania State University, and her team published their war simulation results in Environmental Research Letters earlier this month.
The paper states that “a global nuclear war” could release up to 150 million tons of soot into the atmosphere, leading to “prolonged cooling, agricultural collapse, and social upheaval on an unprecedented scale.”
The study suggests precipitation and solar radiation could decrease by up to 70% globally, causing average air temperatures to plummet by more than 15 degrees Celsius.
The resulting ‘nuclear winter’ could reduce annual maize production by as much as 80%, the paper indicates.
Researchers also highlighted the potential for serious disruptions to supply chains and trade, which would worsen the agricultural crisis and potentially cause regional or global famine. They estimate that it could take seven to twelve years to restore food production levels.
The paper emphasizes that understanding and preparing for the potential damage from a nuclear exchange is “critical” given current geopolitical tensions, including the Ukraine conflict, India-Pakistan tensions, and Middle East instability, which have “undermined the fragile detente that prevailed during the last years of the Cold War.”
To combat this, Shi and her colleagues have proposed developing ‘Agricultural Resilience Kits’ containing region- and climate-specific seeds and technology packages to serve as a “buffer against uncertainty” in the event of a ‘nuclear winter’.
Last month, Nikolay Patrushev, President Putin’s national security advisor, accused Western powers of “deploying their military machine against Russia and becoming delirious with nuclear apocalypse scenarios.”
Moscow has consistently denied US and EU claims of planning to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. However, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine in 2023, allowing for the use of such weapons to deter aggression from hostile powers and military blocs possessing weapons of mass destruction or large conventional weapon arsenals.
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