Borrell Warns of Ukraine Defeat Without Continued Western Support

The EU’s outgoing top diplomat says Kiev could lose the conflict with Russia in two weeks if left on its own

Josep Borrell, the outgoing EU foreign policy chief, has predicted that the Ukraine conflict could end within 15 days if Western support for Kiev ceased. In an interview with the Spanish news outlet 20minutos published on Monday, Borrell acknowledged that many desire a swift end to the conflict but emphasized that Ukraine’s Western allies would not accept a resolution that favors Russia.

According to Borrell, if the EU and US abruptly halted aid to Kiev, Ukraine would be forced to surrender.

“If we stop supporting Ukraine, the war will be over in fifteen days and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will achieve his goals. But do we want this for the Ukrainians, and for the security of ourselves, as Europeans?” Borrell questioned, arguing that the manner in which the conflict ends, not the timing, is of paramount importance.

“We must do everything possible to ensure that when the time comes, negotiations can be held on terms favorable to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the EU’s top diplomat, a vocal supporter of Kiev, added. He has previously pledged on behalf of the bloc “to support Ukraine with whatever it takes for as long as it takes.”

Borrell is stepping down from his position this autumn, to be succeeded by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, an advocate for imposing stricter sanctions on Moscow.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov last month that the country is around 80% reliant on Western military assistance to continue fighting Russia. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has frequently criticized Western countries for withholding crucial weapons needed to combat Russia, delaying decisions on aid packages, and declining to authorize strikes deep within Russia using Western-supplied weaponry.

Russia has warned that Western aid to Kiev only serves to prolong the conflict. President Vladimir Putin previously stated that Ukraine’s military would collapse within a week if the flow of Western aid was cut off.

Putin signaled earlier this year that Moscow was prepared to initiate peace talks if Kiev renounced its claims to former regions that voted to join Russia and abandoned its bid to join NATO. However, following the commencement of Kiev’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region in August, Putin ruled out any engagement with Kiev until Ukrainian troops withdrew from Russian territory.

Kiev is currently endeavoring to persuade its supporters to endorse Zelensky’s so-called ‘victory plan’, which, according to media reports, contradicts nearly all of Russia’s demands. The scheme, which has not yet been publicly disclosed, has reportedly been met with skepticism by Western officials, but Zelensky affirmed over the weekend that he intends to continue advocating for its adoption. Former Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov previously the ‘plan’, labeling it “notorious.”