Iran embarked on a new phase Saturday following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah , which abruptly concluded over three decades of authoritarian rule and initiated a leadership transition that the regime had long prepared for.
A senior Arab diplomat indicated that while Khamenei’s passing constitutes a “massive blow” to the Islamic Republic, Tehran had anticipated this possibility and taken measures to withstand such a scenario.
“Mere survival, at this point, would be considered a victory,” the diplomat stated regarding the regime, according to the outlet, in the aftermath of U.S. and Israeli strikes across the country.
A report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) outlined three potential paths for a post-Khamenei Iran: managed regime continuity, an overt or gradual military takeover, or systemic collapse.
CFR cautioned that even a change in top leadership would not necessarily translate into significant political reform in the near term, given the and its history of using force to maintain control.
The report highlighted that the true balance of power rests within a tight circle of clerical elites and the .
It described a likely “continuity” scenario as producing “Khamenei-ism without Khamenei,” where a successor from within the regime preserves the ideological framework of the Islamic Republic while relying on established security institutions to maintain stability.
“The Islamic Republic’s constitution includes a succession process. The Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, is constitutionally charged with selecting the next supreme leader,” Jason Brodsky, policy director of (UANI), told Digital.
“In the interim, should there be a leadership vacancy, an interim leadership council is formed comprised of the president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council selected by the Expediency Council,” he added. “The IRGC is a key stakeholder in this process, and will heavily influence its outcome.”
Over the past three decades, the Bayt-e Rahbari, or the Office of the Supreme Leader, expanded into what an analysis by UANI described as a “sprawling parallel state” operating alongside Iran’s formal institutions.
The analysis characterizes the Office as the regime’s “hidden nerve center,” extending control across the military, security establishment, and major economic foundations in ways that make the system’s authority institutional rather than dependent on Khamenei’s physical presence.
“The supreme leader today is no longer just one man; he is represented through an all-encompassing institution that consolidates power, manages succession, and guarantees continuity,” the non-partisan policy organization said. “The Islamic Republic’s most enduring strength lies in this hidden architecture of control, which will continue to shape the country’s future long after Khamenei himself departs from the scene.”