Despite Iran’s escalating attacks throughout the Persian Gulf, multiple nations that have been directly hit are still declining to enter the conflict against Iran, choosing instead to exercise restraint and pursue diplomatic solutions. According to Gulf governments, their main focus is on protecting their own land while avoiding a broader war that might throw both the region and worldwide energy markets into turmoil.
On Monday, when White House senior correspondent Peter Doocy questioned Donald Trump regarding Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations, the president stated that specialists had not expected Tehran to strike nearby countries.
“Nobody. Nobody. The top experts — no one believed they would attack,” Trump responded when Doocy inquired about Iranian strikes aimed at Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Tehran broadened the scope of the conflict following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iranian oil installations earlier this month, extending its reprisals to Gulf energy facilities and maritime passages in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has documented a minimum of 25 Iranian assaults on vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz since February 28, along with attacks on energy infrastructure in various Gulf states.
“Tehran focused its attacks on Gulf energy facilities and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to increase the price of war for the U.S. and its regional allies,” explained Luca Nevola, ACLED’s senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf.
Jacob Olidort, chief research officer at the America First Policy Institute, informed Digital that “Since Operation Epic Fury commenced, our Gulf allies have presented an unparalleled united stance against dangers from the Iranian regime,” noting that their efforts have concentrated on halting assaults rather than broadening the conflict. “This demonstrates not only a wish to bring stability to the region but also an acknowledgment that American military achievements enable that stability.”
Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, told Digital that Riyadh is prioritizing the preservation of worldwide market stability. “Riyadh is currently showing maximum restraint, though the key issue is how much longer this can continue,” Al-Ansari stated.
Al-Ansari referenced a time-honored Saudi strategic principle. “More than a century ago, Saudi Arabia’s founder, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, declared: ‘The living do not fight the dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh is adhering to this teaching, at least pending new developments,” he remarked.
Qatar has adopted a comparable position. “Qatar’s state policies consistently aim to reduce tensions,” a Qatari official told Digital. “Qatar is not involved in this war, and we firmly maintain that hostilities must cease via negotiations. Simultaneously, Qatar persists in safeguarding its nation and sovereignty after the Iranian attacks.”
An additional element influencing Gulf caution is a regional rule against permitting their land to be utilized for strikes on Iran. According to some U.S. military specialists, the Gulf’s reluctance also connects to enduring doubts about Washington’s dependability in the area.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, previously deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Digital that unpredictable American policies have undermined confidence among Gulf allies. “Our Middle East policies have been more repetitive than a revolving door,” Harward commented. “We haven’t succeeded in gaining the trust and faith of our Gulf partners during the past fifteen years. This deficit of trust and confidence has only worsened the Iranian threat to the region.”
The retired Vice Admiral noted that Gulf governments are carefully evaluating the dangers of escalation. “While these nations contemplate taking offensive action, they fear the consequences of our departure,” he stated. “Clearly, these countries struggle to protect themselves against a nation of 90 million people without our support.”
According to regional experts, Gulf leaders worry that if even a single nation enters the combat, the war could rapidly consume the entire region.
Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini specialist, told Digital that should one Gulf Cooperation Council member enter the war, it might pull the whole alliance into the conflict. “If any GCC member chose to participate in this offensive, it would compel all other GCC nations to join simultaneously,” Aljunaid explained.
The repercussions could reach well past the combat zone. “You can picture what oil prices would become. We’re certainly looking at over $150 per barrel,” he asserted.
Aljunaid added that Gulf leaders are also cautious about indefinite military operations in the area. “Historical evidence indicates that whenever military intervention begins in this region, it never concludes as pledged,” he observed.
Rather, he indicated that Gulf nations are concentrating on defensive strategies while discreetly backing diplomatic pathways, such as Oman’s mediation initiatives.
Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III stated that Iran committed a significant strategic error by attacking Gulf states. “Iran executed a strategic miscalculation by assaulting Gulf countries — our allies and partners — using ballistic missiles and drone strikes,” Newton told Digital.
The former Air Force commander cautioned that strikes on critical infrastructure like oil facilities or desalination plants might drive Gulf states to adopt a more forceful reaction.
“I suspect there could possibly be one or two countries in the area that might be willing to partner with the U.S. in taking offensive action against Iran,” Newton said. “That definitely falls within the bounds of possibility in the upcoming weeks.”
Newton further noted that the enduring goal for America and its allies ought to be stopping Iran from endangering regional stability and international shipping lanes. “This involves establishing naval supremacy in the Persian Gulf and creating circumstances that ensure secure transit for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz,” he stated.
For the time being, though, Gulf leaders seem resolved to limit the conflict instead of intensifying it, despite Iranian attacks already hitting their soil.
The UAE did not promptly reply to inquiries seeking comment.