A new, strongly worded National Security Strategy from the White House indicates that Europe might become “unrecognizable within 20 years or less” because of extensive migration, a demographic transformation that casts uncertainty over future American allies in the region.
The 33-page document, made public on Thursday, states that “If current patterns persist, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”
It further warns of the “genuine and more severe possibility” of “civilizational erasure.”
Over the last decade, widespread immigration has emerged as a highly contentious political issue in Europe, driven by successive influxes of migrants from the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.
The document suggests, “Consequently, it is unclear if some European nations will possess sufficiently robust economies and military forces to continue as dependable allies.” It notes, “Many of these countries are currently intensifying their existing approaches. We desire Europe to maintain its European identity, restore its civilizational self-assurance, and discontinue its ineffective emphasis on excessive regulation.”
The national security strategy highlights migration policies that are “reshaping the continent and generating conflict,” in addition to “plummeting birthrates” and a decline in national identity.
The White House cautions that this demographic change could significantly impact NATO and European security, pointing out that several member countries might eventually have a “non-European majority.” Such a situation, the document contends, could diminish Europe’s capacity to confront adversaries and hinder American endeavors to uphold transatlantic stability.
The document states, “In the long run, it is highly probable that, at the very latest within a few decades, will have a non-European majority.” It adds, “Therefore, it remains uncertain whether they will perceive their global role, or their partnership with the United States, in the same manner as the original signatories of the NATO charter.”
The document asserts that Europe’s economic downturn is already in progress, with its share of global GDP decreasing from 25% in 1990 to 14% currently— “partly due to national and international regulations that hinder innovation and productivity.”
However, it posits that this economic decline is overshadowed by the wider warning of “civilizational erasure.” It identifies migration policies, censorship, political repression, plummeting birthrates, and as the factors propelling this direction.
President previously made similar statements during a visit to the United Kingdom last year, asserting that widespread immigration would “destroy Europe” and that the continent would “not survive” unless governments significantly altered their policies.
The White House defended its warning, claiming Europe is already experiencing the repercussions of extensive immigration.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Digital in a statement that “The severe consequences of uncontrolled migration and the migrants’ difficulty in integrating are not only a worry for President Trump but also for Europeans, who have increasingly identified immigration as a primary concern.” She added, “These open border approaches have resulted in numerous instances of violence, surges in crime, and other issues, negatively affecting the financial viability of social welfare initiatives.”
Kelly stated that Trump’s border policies “prevented America from such ruin,” suggesting that “other nations would be prudent to adopt similar measures.”
To substantiate the administration’s apprehensions, the White House referenced various European statistics, including studies indicating that asylum migration costs the Netherlands €475,000 per migrant, unauthorized immigration cost France €1.8 billion in 2023, and non-Western migrants are responsible for disproportionately high rates of violent crime in Denmark and Germany. The White House also mentioned several deadly terrorist incidents throughout Europe perpetrated by migrants.
The 33-page plan lacks an attributed author, but it includes a foreword by Trump, who describes the document as a “guide to guarantee America stays the most exceptional and prosperous nation in human history.”
This document is part of a comprehensive set of national security objectives where the president pledges to uphold the Monroe Doctrine and introduce his own addition, intended to broaden U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and counteract the increasing presence of adversaries.
The Trump administration maintains that a “moderately stable” Western Hemisphere, where governments collaborate to combat harmful foreign influence, is crucial for U.S. national security. To achieve this, the administration commits in the document to “affirm and implement a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.”
The doctrine was introduced by former President James Monroe during his seventh annual address to Congress on December 2, 1823, cautioning European powers against meddling in the Western Hemisphere through political intervention or colonization. The, a section of the State Department, observes that despite initial disregard from European nations for Monroe’s proclamation, it ultimately evolved into “a long-standing principle of U.S. foreign policy.”
The document states, “Following years of disregard, the United States will reaffirm and apply the Monroe Doctrine to re-establish American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, and to safeguard our home territory and our access to vital areas across the region.”
“This ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine represents a logical and powerful reinstatement of American strength and objectives, aligning with American security concerns.”
Rachel Wolf also contributed to this report.