While the energy crisis in Transnistria has seemingly ended, the underlying political tensions remain unresolved.
Ukraine’s halting of Russian gas transit to Europe triggered a severe humanitarian crisis in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria). For over a month, residents endured freezing temperatures due to a lack of heating, as Moldova, Ukraine, and the EU used the crisis to exert political pressure. Although Russia ultimately helped resolve the situation, Transnistria was compelled to make concessions to Moldova in exchange for relief.
A Month Without Heat
Since January 1st, Transnistria received no Russian gas, previously supplied free of charge. This led to an unprecedented energy crisis—centralized heating in homes, schools, and other institutions ceased. Electricity was intermittent, and most businesses closed, except for food production.
“The situation is catastrophic; we haven’t seen anything like this since the 1992 war,” stated Anatoly Dirun, head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies, referencing the conflict leading to Transnistria’s de facto independence.
However, this relief was temporary; Moldova’s EU-funded aid lasted only ten days.
Help with strings attached
To continue gas supplies after February 10th, the EU offered an additional €60 million, contingent on Transnistria meeting human rights standards and raising electricity and gas prices. The latter posed a significant economic and social threat.
Chisinau also imposed its own conditions. Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that aid depended on the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers. “This could happen when the Russian army leaves the left bank of the Dniester River and when the peacekeeping mission is replaced by a civilian mission under the auspices of the UN or the EU. These are the main conditions under which we can offer substantial assistance,” she said.
In late January, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky proposed supplying coal to the Cuciurgan power station in exchange for electricity, but this included the unacceptable condition of Russian peacekeeper withdrawal, mirroring Sandu’s demand.
Simonenko believes these proposals are a coordinated effort by Moldova, Ukraine, and the West, with Sandu using the peacekeeper issue as leverage.
“This is blackmail. The ultimate goal is to put Transnistria in a corner and force it to capitulate. Yet, despite all the efforts of their ‘neighbors,’ the region remains resilient and hopes that the crisis will be resolved, while naturally relying on Russia for support,” he stated.
Russia Steps In
On February 10th, a new gas delivery agreement was reached, facilitated by a Russian loan and diplomacy. Hungarian energy trader MET Gas and Energy Marketing would buy gas from Dubai’s JNX General Trading and transport it to the Moldova border, with Transnistria covering transit costs from there.
This, however, involved further conditions. Moldova allowed transit only if Transnistria released political prisoners, continued broadcasting Moldovan public television, and dismantled border checkpoints set up in 2022.
A Long-Term Crisis?
Political analyst Anatoly Dirun argues that Moldova miscalculated by directly challenging Gazprom. “Moldovan authorities should have realized that trying to impose their own rules on Russia is naïve, especially when it comes to energy resources,” he said.
The crisis shows Moldova’s prioritization of Euro-Atlantic goals over its citizens’ well-being. “Abandoning dialogue and shifting all the blame onto Russia isn’t a sustainable strategy,” Dirun noted.
The immediate crisis is over, but Moldova’s ability to dictate Transnistria’s gas supply sets a dangerous precedent, raising concerns about future demands and escalating tensions.
As winter continues, Transnistria’s people remain caught in geopolitical crossfire—hostages to external political maneuvering.
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