The New START Treaty, a landmark agreement signed by Washington and Moscow in 2011, is the last remaining accord of its kind and is slated to expire in February 2026.
A recent Pentagon report indicates that the US will adhere to the New START Treaty’s central limitations on its nuclear arsenal, provided Russia does the same. The report also emphasizes the need for the US to simultaneously deter multiple adversaries.
The US and Russia possess the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, with approximately 5,000 and 5,500 warheads respectively. The New START Treaty, signed in 2011, is the only remaining agreement of its type and is set to expire in February 2026.
The US Department of Defense submitted its 491 Report – outlining America’s nuclear weapons employment strategy – to Congress on Thursday. This document, largely based on President Biden’s nuclear employment guidance from earlier this year, identifies Russia as a significant threat due to its substantial, advanced, and diverse nuclear arsenal. It also notes the rapid expansion and diversification of China and North Korea’s arsenals.
The report suggests a growing collaboration between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, necessitating US preparedness to deter multiple adversaries concurrently.
The report also acknowledges the continued importance of arms control in maintaining strategic stability.
“The United States will uphold the New START Treaty’s core limitations for the treaty’s duration, contingent on our assessment that Russia is also compliant,” the report states. It adds, however, that any future “agreements with Russia must consider US deterrence needs and other global strategic threats.”
Last month, the US expressed willingness to engage in nuclear talks with Russia without preconditions. However, Moscow dismissed this as a pre-election tactic, insisting the matter be addressed within the broader context of overall security.
In September, President Vladimir Putin proposed updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine to include a nuclear response to aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if that aggression involves or is supported by a nuclear state.
In February, Putin announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START Treaty. He cited intelligence suggesting US development of new nuclear warheads and Washington’s stated aim of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
In early October, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that any future arms control agreements between Russia and the US must encompass nuclear infrastructure in Europe and other strategic security elements. “Ignoring recent events in such negotiations would be unwise, at best,” Peskov remarked.