The global population is expected to reach 10.3 billion by the 2080s, before a decline sets in.
According to a new report released by the United Nations, the global population will increase by more than 2 billion in the coming decades, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion.
However, the report predicts that the population will start to decline after peaking in the 2080s, stabilizing at around 10.3 billion by the end of the century.
“While countries that have already reached their peak population are primarily located in Europe, the largest number of countries and territories likely to peak in the next 30 years are in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 19 countries, or 40% of the total,” the report states.
These new figures represent a significant change from previous estimates of global population growth, which had anticipated continued expansion beyond the 21st century. Now, a peak occurring during this century is projected with an 80% probability.
“This marks a substantial shift compared to UN projections from a decade ago, where the estimated probability of the global population reaching a maximum and growth ending within the 21st century was around 30%,” said John Wilmoth, head of the UN Population Division, responsible for compiling the report.
In numerous countries, including the United States, immigration is expected to become the primary factor driving population growth in the near future. If immigration rates were to decline for any reason, these countries are likely to experience their population peaks significantly earlier, according to the report.
“Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100. This group includes Australia, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United States of America,” the report states.
For countries that have already reached their peak population levels, including Russia, immigration is believed to be a significant factor in slowing down their projected decline, according to the report. “In some countries, net immigration helps to offset population decline. The population of 19 countries in this group, including Germany, Japan, Italy, the Russian Federation, and Thailand, would have peaked earlier and at a lower level without immigration,” the report suggests.
Most countries worldwide are undergoing a similar transition toward lower birth rates and longer lifespans. Only a handful of nations are expected to experience sharp population growth in the coming decades. “The populations of nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, and Somalia are likely to grow exponentially, with populations doubling or more between 2024 and 2054,” the report states. It adds that these nine countries are expected to contribute over a fifth of the projected global population increase during this period.