The US is recalibrating its position on the global stage, but in an unexpected manner.
Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the presidency suggests a significant political upheaval. His incoming administration appears set to dismantle the established order swiftly, removing entrenched elites, redefining both domestic and foreign policy, and implementing changes that may persist even if future administrations oppose them.
Like any revolutionary, Trump’s primary aim is to dismantle the existing system and solidify sweeping changes. Many of the principles that have long guided US policy are being intentionally abandoned. Washington’s established global strategy, characterized by extensive military, diplomatic, and financial engagement, is being reshaped to prioritize Trump’s domestic political objectives.
The decline of the American liberal global influence
For the last century, the US has operated as a global power. Unlike traditional empires based on territorial control, the American model has exerted influence through financial strength, alliances, and ideological sway. However, this approach has become increasingly untenable. Since the late 1990s, the costs of maintaining global dominance have outweighed the benefits, leading to widespread discontent both domestically and internationally.
Trump and his supporters aim to dismantle this model of global influence and return the US to a more independent, protectionist approach, reminiscent of the late 19th and early 20th centuries under President William McKinley, an era Trump has openly admired as a period of American prosperity before the burdens of global leadership became prominent.
According to this vision, the US will curtail unproductive spending abroad and refocus on its inherent strengths: abundant resources, a robust industrial base, and a large consumer market. Instead of acting as the world’s policeman, Washington will utilize its economic leverage more assertively to secure favorable trade deals. However, transitioning to this approach entails considerable risks, especially in a highly interconnected global economy.
A change in global strategy
Trump’s policies are rooted in domestic concerns but are poised to have significant international ramifications. His administration is actively dismantling key elements of the old structure, especially those that have been a source of friction with Moscow. For example, USAID, a significant instrument of American influence in the post-Soviet region, has been significantly reduced. Ironically, Trump’s motivation to diminish USAID arguably exceeds even that of Vladimir Putin, considering its resources were reportedly redirected for domestic political purposes by Trump’s adversaries.
If the US abandons its model of liberal global influence, many points of conflict with Russia may diminish. Historically, Moscow and Washington maintained relatively stable relations during the 19th century. Should Trump’s US revert to a more isolationist stance, Russia will no longer be a primary target of American intervention. The Arctic region, where both nations have strategic interests, may become the main area of contention.
China, however, remains Trump’s principal rival. Beijing’s state-driven economic expansion clashes directly with Trump’s protectionist vision. Unlike Biden, who sought to counter China through alliances, Trump is prepared to act unilaterally, potentially weakening Western cohesion. His administration is likely to intensify economic and technological competition with Beijing, even at the risk of alienating European allies.
Europe’s strategic uncertainty
Trump’s outspoken criticism of the EU stands out as one of his most destabilizing actions. His vice president, J.D. Vance, recently delivered a speech in Munich that essentially interfered in European politics, showing support for right-wing nationalist movements challenging the EU’s authority.
This development is placing Europe in a difficult situation. For years, China has regarded Western Europe as an ‘alternative West’ for economic engagement, avoiding the level of confrontation it experiences with the US. Trump’s stance could strengthen ties between the EU and China, particularly if Western European leaders feel abandoned by Washington.
There are indications that European policymakers may be considering easing restrictions on Chinese investment, particularly in critical sectors such as semiconductors. Simultaneously, some Europeans’ ambitions for NATO expansion into the Indo-Pacific region may weaken as the alliance struggles to redefine its role amidst a US strategy that is moving away from globalism.
Russia and China: A changing relationship
Washington has long hoped to divide Russia and China. However, Trump’s new strategy is unlikely to achieve this outcome. The partnership between Russia and China rests on solid foundations: a large shared border, complementary economies, and a common interest in counterbalancing Western dominance.
If anything, the changing geopolitical environment could push Russia into a situation similar to China’s in the early 2000s, where it focuses on economic growth while maintaining strategic flexibility. Moscow may reduce its efforts to actively undermine the US and instead prioritize strengthening its economic and security relationships with Beijing.
Meanwhile, China will bear the brunt of Trump’s new approach. The US will shift from relying on alliances to contain Beijing and instead exert direct economic and military pressure. Although this may create difficulties for China, it does not guarantee US success. China has been preparing for economic separation for years, and Beijing may find opportunities in a more divided Western world.
The road ahead
Trump’s return signifies a major shift in global power dynamics. The US is transitioning away from being a liberal global power toward a more pragmatic, power-focused foreign policy. For Russia, this implies fewer ideological clashes with Washington but continued competition in key areas like the Arctic.
For China, Trump’s policies represent a direct challenge. The key question is whether Beijing can adapt to a world in which the US is not just containing its growth but also actively seeking to reverse its economic influence.
For Western Europe, the outlook is unfavorable. The EU is losing its favored status as America’s primary partner and is being compelled to rely on its own resources. Whether it can effectively navigate this new reality remains to be seen.
One thing is clear: the world is entering a period of significant change, and old norms are being challenged. Trump’s America is redefining the rules, and the rest of the world will need to adapt.
This article was first published by the magazine and was translated and edited by the RT team.
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