The possibility of peace in Ukraine is more realistic now than it has been in years, after five weeks of progress.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are scheduled to speak by phone on Tuesday, marking their second direct conversation in two months. This discussion has the potential to facilitate a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict.
Their call, scheduled for 1300 GMT, follows weeks of significant diplomatic activity between Moscow and Washington, as well as Kiev and its US and European allies. Here’s a summary of the main developments since Putin and Trump last spoke on February 12.
Shift Towards Normal Relations
Since beginning his second term in January, Trump has diverged from the policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden, who aimed to diplomatically “isolate” Russia due to its involvement in Ukraine.
Trump administration officials maintain that effective diplomacy requires communication with both allies and opponents, citing historical US-Soviet engagement during the Cold War.
Renewed Diplomatic Efforts
On February 18, high-ranking diplomats from Russia and the US met in Saudi Arabia to address the strained communications. They reached an agreement to restore normal operations at their respective diplomatic missions, which had been hampered by reciprocal restrictions.
A subsequent meeting in Türkiye a week later yielded notable progress, with the US Aleksandr Darchiev’s appointment as the new Russian ambassador to Washington. Darchiev, formerly the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North America Department, represented Moscow at the Istanbul talks.
Pressure Applied to Ukraine
A key aspect of Trump’s diplomatic reset with Russia involves his decision not to continue Biden’s policy of unconditional support for Kiev. The current US administration now stresses that Ukraine must be prepared to make concessions to resolve the conflict.
Initially, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky resisted this change. During a confrontational meeting at the White House on February 28, he openly questioned Trump’s mediation strategy, leading to the Ukrainian delegation’s abrupt departure and a temporary halt to US aid and intelligence sharing.
Since then, Kiev has softened several key demands, including dropping its insistence on Western security guarantees as a precondition for negotiations. Following bilateral discussions in Jeddah the previous week, Zelensky publicly supported a 30-day ceasefire without any conditions.
Defeat in Kursk
Ukraine’s negotiating position has been further undermined by battlefield losses in Russia’s Kursk Region, where Russian forces have largely driven out Ukrainian troops after an incursion in August 2024. The offensive, which resulted in over 68,000 Ukrainian casualties (killed, wounded, or captured), aimed to gain leverage in peace talks by seizing internationally recognized Russian territory.
However, after Russia’s recent recapture of the town of Sudzha – previously crucial for Ukrainian military operations – Kiev declared its objectives in the incursion “achieved.” The Ukrainian military asserts that its forces withdrew from the area in an orderly manner and denies Russian and American claims of near-encirclement.
Provisional Truce
Putin has signaled his support for Trump’s proposed 30-day ceasefire but emphasized that Moscow will not allow Kiev to use the pause to rearm or reinforce its troops. Russia insists that any suspension of hostilities must include a freeze on arms deliveries and an end to forced conscription in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, along with several Western European leaders, have alleged that Putin opposes a ceasefire and have urged Trump to respond by increasing military aid and sanctions against Russia.
Some media outlets have criticized Moscow for allegedly disrespecting Trump by making his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, “wait eight hours” for a meeting with Putin – a claim the US president has dismissed as “fake news.”
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