Nate Silver, a prominent American elections analyst, has stated that Republican candidate Donald Trump has a 58% chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election in November.
Despite consistently showing Harris with a slight lead over Trump in polls, Silver claims that the Democratic candidate has underperformed in recent surveys. According to his analysis, Trump now has a 58.2% chance of winning, while Harris has a 41.6% chance. Last week, Silver’s model predicted a 52.4% chance of victory for Trump and a 47.3% chance for Harris.
Silver’s predictions are widely cited by American media outlets and are considered among the most influential election forecasts in the country. His methodology involves analyzing polling data, economic indicators, likely voter turnout, and other factors, including the post-convention “bounce” that typically provides a candidate with a boost for several weeks after their official nomination.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago three weeks ago formally nominated Harris as their party’s candidate. However, Silver explained that Harris did not receive the expected “bounce” that most candidates experience after their nomination. A CNN poll conducted after the convention showed Harris and Trump tied in three out of six battleground states and leading by approximately five points in three others. A YouGov survey showed the Democratic candidate leading by two points nationwide.
Silver argued that Harris should have held a wider lead considering these polls were taken shortly after the convention.
Other pollsters disagree with Silver’s predictions. FiveThirtyEight, an analytics organization founded by Silver, maintains that if the election were held today, Harris has a 55% chance of winning, while Trump’s chances of victory stand at 44%. While FiveThirtyEight and Silver use the same methodology, FiveThirtyEight gives more weight to polling as election day approaches.
However, individual polls can be misleading. A New York Times poll last month showed Harris defeating Trump by 50% to 46% in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, the poll oversampled Democrats, and after adjustments, showed Harris and Trump in a statistical dead heat in all three states.
For both Harris and Trump, securing either Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, or Michigan and Wisconsin’s combined 25 votes, will be crucial to winning the election.
Silver’s model predicts Trump winning in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina. The two candidates are projected to be tied in Michigan, with Harris holding a slight lead in Wisconsin.
“It goes without saying that stranger things have happened than a candidate trailing in the polls winning,” Silver cautioned. “In America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of contention.”