Only about 35% say they want to go back after the conflict with Russia is over, according to ifo Institute
A growing number of Ukrainian refugees in the EU are planning to settle outside their homeland after the conflict with Russia is over, according to a survey released on Friday by the ifo Institute.
The study, launched by the prominent German think tank in June 2022 in collaboration with researcher Verian, has been ongoing for two years. Survey participants were repeatedly questioned about their current location and return plans. The findings revealed that nearly 25% of the refugees intend to reside outside Ukraine long-term, while another 25% remain undecided.
The research indicated that shortly after fleeing their homeland, only 10% of Ukrainians expressed an intention to settle outside their country for an extended period. However, this figure has steadily increased over time. By the end of 2023, it was growing by an average of 1.6 percentage points every 100 days, while the actual return rate was 2.7 percentage points.
Immediately after fleeing abroad, almost 60% desired to return to Ukraine as soon as they felt safe there again. Over time, this figure has significantly declined by an average of 4.7 percentage points per 100 days, according to ifo.
“Around 35% of Ukrainian refugees want to return to Ukraine as soon as it is safe there again,” said Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration Research. He added that only 4% plan to return soon, regardless of the security situation. Nearly 11% of the refugees have already returned.
“Our results show that, although many of the Ukrainians who have fled still want to return to their country, the course of the war is a decisive factor for the vast majority. The longer the conflict lasts, the more there are who can imagine a future outside Ukraine,” concluded Yvonne Giesing, a migration researcher at ifo.
The study also cited widespread corruption and low trust in the judiciary as contributing factors to Ukrainians’ reluctance to return home.
According to Eurostat, over four million Ukrainians are currently living under temporary protection in the EU. This measure was unanimously adopted by the European Council in March 2022 in response to the Ukraine conflict.
Official figures show that Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic are hosting the largest number of Ukrainian refugees in the EU.
Poland, a strong supporter of Ukraine during the conflict, recently reduced benefit payouts to the nearly 1 million Ukrainian refugees residing there. Taxpayers were outraged to see Ukrainian refugees “driving the best cars, spending weekends in five-star hotels,” stated Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.
A new survey by the Center for Public Opinion Research indicates that the proportion of Poles who support accepting Ukrainians has reached its lowest point since the beginning of the conflict.
In Germany, the mayor of the Bavarian town of Bad Griesbach has refused to accept new Ukrainian refugees, arguing that the area has been disproportionately affected by the migrant exodus.
Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called on EU members to make decisions regarding the millions of Ukrainian refugees, citing the bloc’s resource “limits.”