New projections indicate the country could experience a loss of tens of millions of inhabitants within a century due to dwindling birth rates.
South Korea’s population is projected to decrease by 85% over the next century if current demographic patterns continue, according to a recent study. The research highlights the nation’s ongoing struggles with low birth rates and an increasingly elderly population.
The report, released on Wednesday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, demonstrated that even under the most favorable scenario, the population is expected to fall to 15.73 million, which is less than a third of its current size. The average estimate places the population in 2125 at 11.15 million.
In the most adverse scenario presented by the institute, South Korea’s population could drop to 7.53 million by 2125, a sharp decline from its present 51.68 million. This figure would be lower than the current population of the capital, Seoul, which exceeds 9.3 million.
The institute employed the internationally recognized cohort-component method to forecast future population changes based on fertility, mortality, and migration trends. The report emphasizes the exceptionally rapid pace of South Korea’s demographic decline.
The decrease is being driven not only by low birth rates but also by a reinforcing effect: as each generation becomes smaller, the pool of potential parents also shrinks, accelerating the overall population reduction.
In 75 years, the worst-case projection suggests that for every 100 people of working age (between 15 and 64), there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older.
Currently, 100 working-age individuals support approximately 30 seniors, indicating that South Korea is moving toward an “inverted pyramid” society, where the number of elderly dependents significantly surpasses those in the workforce.
The findings also showed that younger generations now place greater emphasis on “money” and “housing” than “love” when discussing marriage. Financial pressure was the most frequent concern raised in conversations about having children.
The report concluded that economic considerations presently play a larger role than personal preference in decisions regarding marriage and parenthood.
These projections underscore the demographic challenges South Korea faces as it contends with one of the world’s lowest birth rates and fastest-aging populations.
As of 2024, the country’s total fertility rate has only risen to 0.75, remaining well below the replacement level of 2.1.