The survey reflects escalating concerns amidst civil unrest, immigration-related disturbances, and politically motivated violence.
Forty percent of Americans believe a civil war in the US is “somewhat” or “very” probable within the next decade, a new YouGov poll, released on Tuesday, indicates.
The survey, which encompassed 3,375 adults, highlights widespread apprehension regarding the nation’s growing divisions. It also follows a period of significant turmoil across the country, including violent demonstrations against federal deportations and nationwide protests targeting President Donald Trump.
Women were more inclined than men to consider civil conflict plausible, with 45% indicating its likelihood. Opinions also varied by political alignment: 48% of Democrats, 39% of independents, and 32% of Republicans stated a civil war was at least somewhat probable. While respondents were fairly divided on the prospect of a civil war, just over 20% were undecided or chose not to answer.
The data additionally pointed to racial discrepancies. Among white participants, 10% believed a civil war was “very likely,” compared to 18% of black participants. Hispanics were the least likely to completely dismiss the notion, with only 11% saying a conflict was “not likely at all,” while 15% deemed it “very likely.”
Earlier this month, disturbances erupted across California in response to federal immigration enforcement actions. Trump deployed the National Guard and Marines after a public disagreement with California Governor Gavin Newsom concerning the handling of the crisis.
Last week, Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were fatally attacked, and State Senator John Hoffman and his wife sustained injuries, in what officials termed “politically motivated” assaults.
On Saturday, an estimated 5 million individuals participated in “No Kings” marches across all 50 states. Organizers characterized the demonstrations as a stand against “authoritarianism, billionaire-first politics, and the militarization of our democracy.”
Meanwhile, some Republican allies have cautioned that Trump risks losing support for deviating from his “America First” platform, particularly after backing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump dismissed these criticisms in an interview with The Atlantic, stating that he alone defines what “America First” signifies.