According to Politico, Brussels may find it difficult to fulfill its massive energy commitment due to market constraints, infrastructure limitations, and legal challenges.
Politico reported on Tuesday that analysts and officials believe the EU’s pledge to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the US over three years to avoid a trade war with Washington is “almost impossible” to achieve.
The EU and the US finalized a comprehensive trade agreement on Sunday, narrowly averting a transatlantic trade conflict. The agreement stipulates that most EU exports to the US will be subject to a baseline tariff of 15%. Brussels also committed to investing $600 billion in the US economy and purchasing $750 billion in American energy over the next three years.
The report suggests that limited US supply, technical barriers, and the EU’s lack of direct control over import agreements will make reaching these targets exceedingly difficult.
Laura Page, a senior analyst at Kpler, a commodities firm, told Politico that the headline figure is “completely unrealistic.” Last year, the EU spent €76 billion on US energy. Tripling that would require excluding cheaper suppliers and diverting nearly all US oil and gas exports to Europe. “It’s just never going to happen.”
Despite European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s assertion that the plan would enhance energy security and decrease reliance on Russia, the outlet noted that the figures remain unconvincing. While pipeline flows decreased following sanctions and the Nord Stream sabotage, Russian LNG imports surged, accounting for 17.5% of EU supply last year, second only to the US at 45.3%.
In 2024, the EU imported €23 billion worth of oil, gas, and nuclear fuel from Russia, an amount insufficient to bridge the gap.
Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi stated that EU refineries also have limited capacity to process American oil, capped at around 14%. “It really is a fantasy,” he said.
According to a senior Commission official, the agreement hinges on adequate LNG infrastructure and US shipping capacity, which are currently lacking.
The Commission also cannot make purchases directly, relying instead on private companies. “This is not something the EU can guarantee,” one official stated.