Alistair Carns, a UK Ministry of Defence official responsible for personnel, has warned of the UK’s unpreparedness for high casualty rates comparable to the Ukraine conflict.
According to Carns, in a large-scale conflict mirroring the situation in Ukraine, the British Army’s current strength would be depleted within six months to a year, based on estimated casualty rates. He holds the position of Under-Secretary of State for veterans and personnel within the defense ministry. Carns voiced these concerns at a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) event on Wednesday.
“In a major war – not a limited engagement, but one resembling the conflict in Ukraine — our army, within a broader multinational coalition, would be exhausted, based on current casualty projections, in six months to a year,” Carns stated.
His calculation utilized potentially inaccurate Ukrainian claims of 1,500 Russian casualties daily, a figure Moscow disputes. While not advocating for immediate army expansion, Carns stressed the need for “rapidly generating depth and mass in a crisis,” highlighting the crucial role of reserves.
As of October 1st, the British Army comprised 109,245 personnel, including 25,814 reservists. Carns emphasized the UK’s significant deficit in reserve strength compared to other NATO allies.
His remarks follow comments by Britain’s Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff, Rob Magowan, who recently asserted the army’s readiness for immediate deployment. However, Defence Secretary John Healey recently described the army, navy, and air force as “hollowed out” and “underfunded” due to the preceding 14 years of Conservative rule.
Healey noted that while Labour anticipated challenges, “the state of the finances, the state of the forces, was far worse than we thought,” adding that the UK, like many nations, is proficient in conducting military operations but lacks readiness for sustained combat.
Reports from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, citing anonymous sources, recently suggested discussions between the UK and France regarding potential troop deployments.
In July, the British Army’s active-duty strength fell to just over 73,000 – its lowest since 1823, a time when the UK population was approximately 20 million, compared to today’s 67 million.
Established in 1707, the British Army, along with the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, forms the UK’s armed forces. Its non-royal designation reflects its origins in parliamentary forces that opposed the crown during the 17th-century civil wars.