President Donald Trump vowed on Sunday evening that the Iranian regime would “suffer a severe backlash” if it repeated the killing of protesters, as it had done during previous citizen-led uprisings against the regime.
When questioned about his initial remarks regarding the protection of Iranian demonstrators during a press interaction aboard Air Force One, Trump stated, “We are closely monitoring the situation. If they resume killing people as they have in the past, I believe the United States will respond very forcefully.”
Protests in Iran have been ongoing for the past nine days, coinciding with Trump’s second threat to side with the demonstrators.
According to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), the protests have spread to 78 cities and 222 locations, with demonstrators calling for the ouster of the regime led by 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The group reported that the regime has killed at least 20 individuals, including three children, and arrested 990 people. HRAI also stated that Khamenei’s security forces have detained over 40 children.
Iranian security analyst Shukriya Bradost, CEO of Four Sides Security Solutions, told [Digital] that “Trump’s warning to the Iranian regime emboldened protesters because it came from a president who had already shown a readiness to directly challenge Tehran, most notably by ordering the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. For Iranians who felt forsaken during the 2009 Green Movement under the Obama administration and later disillusioned by the Biden administration’s more lenient stance toward the regime, Trump’s statements were regarded as credible and empowering.”
A U.S. military drone strike in Iraq on January 3, 2020, resulted in the death of former Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Bradost further stated, “Today, many Iranians desire Trump to uphold that same clarity: to openly back the Iranian people, not the regime, and to make it explicit that repression will not be tolerated or accepted as normal.”
“The Islamic Republic is no longer a viable system. The key question now is whether U.S. policy strengthens the Iranian people’s pursuit of genuine change or inadvertently aids parts of a failing regime in enduring,”
During the 2009 protests, Iranian demonstrators asked, “Obama: Are you with us or against us?” At that time, former President Barack Obama aligned with the Islamic Republic. In 2022, he expressed regret over his alignment with Khamenei’s regime during the Green Movement.
Trump’s remarks have further fueled the demonstrations, as observed by those closely following the unrest in Iran.
Mardo Soghom, a seasoned Iran expert who has penned numerous works on the country, told [Digital], “There is no question that President Trump’s warning to Iran’s Islamic rulers will embolden Iranians, but the reality is that the recent protests in Iran commenced before Trump made those statements. Most Iranians opposing the regime, particularly those demonstrating in the streets inside the country, are seeking Israeli or U.S. assistance to disarm the regime and neutralize its repressive forces.”
He further stated, “The current wave of protests in Iran differs from previous ones. People are not seeking reforms; instead, they unanimously and explicitly aim for regime change. The protests are also more intense. This time, the people are less fearful of the notorious security forces and exhibit greater resolve.”
Tehran’s options have been constrained by Trump’s threats and a longstanding economic crisis that worsened following Israel’s 12-day military operation in June, carried out with U.S. backing, which targeted several of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“These dual pressures have reduced Tehran’s flexibility, leaving leaders caught between public outrage in the streets and escalating demands and threats from Washington, with few feasible options and high risks at every turn,” an Iranian official told Reuters.
Iranian-American activist Masih Alinejad, who advocates for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, told [the outlet] that “Trump’s strong message has given hope to the Iranian people.” She mentioned that following Trump’s initial statement in support of the protesters, a large number of [people]… She emphasized that this is the first time in history that a U.S. president “is firmly standing with the Iranian people and not sending a conciliatory message to the oppressors.”
Alinejad urged Trump to expel Iran’s representative from the United Nations and urged the White House to persuade [a relevant party] to provide Starlink services for internet connectivity. She also called on President Trump to launch targeted U.S. military strikes against those responsible for massacring innocent Iranians.