A new report warns that combined war casualties from the nearly four-year conflict could reach 2 million by spring 2026, encompassing soldiers killed, wounded, or missing from both sides.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report Tuesday forecasting this grim milestone. CSIS reports Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 soldier deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025. Ukraine’s losses are estimated at 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, with 140,000 soldier fatalities. CSIS projects current combined casualties could be as high as 1.8 million.
Obtaining accurate casualty figures remains difficult as neither Moscow nor Kyiv releases prompt data on military losses, while both nations simultaneously emphasize each other’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged just over 6,000 soldier deaths, according to AP reporting.
The publication added that activists and independent journalists say reports of military losses have been repressed.
“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is declining as a major power,” the report reads.
“No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the report notes.
Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been “significantly higher” than Ukraine’s, according to the report.
CSIS estimates the ratio at roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS cites several reasons for Russia’s high casualties and fatalities, including the country’s “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale, and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.” The report also states Russia has accepted high casualties as part of its strategy.
“Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” CSIS states in its report.
In addition to its high casualty rate, Russia has also been advancing “remarkably slowly,” according to the report. CSIS stated Russian forces advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent offenses since seizing military initiative in January 2024. The report authors say Russia’s pace is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
The report comes less than one month before the fourth anniversary of the conflict. Despite international mediators, including the U.S., attempting to end the war, it has persisted, with both sides suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed during Russian strikes that hit an apartment block on Kyiv’s outskirts, according to AP. Additionally, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Representatives for Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. An official said in an X post that the “conversations were constructive.”
“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the process continues,” the official wrote on X, noting delegations could meet again as early as next week. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back to their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and coordinate further steps with their leaders.”
The publication reached out to Russia and Ukraine’s foreign affairs ministries.