The tech entrepreneur’s remark followed the release of data indicating a 34% higher death rate than birth rate in Scotland for the first six months of 2025.
Elon Musk, the tech billionaire, cautioned that Europe could “die out” if it doesn’t address its demographic challenges by increasing birth rates.
Musk’s Saturday post on X was a response to Scottish statistics revealing that deaths exceeded births by 34% in the first half of 2025.
He stated, “Unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement rate, Europe will die out,” referring to the number of children needed per couple to maintain a stable population.
The generally accepted replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman, which factors in child mortality and roughly equal gender distribution at birth. However, recent studies suggest that a rate closer to 2.7 children per woman might be necessary for long-term population survival.
According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the fertility rate in England and Wales dropped to 1.4 in 2024, while Scotland’s was 1.3 – both significantly below replacement levels. The EU has seen a continuous decline in fertility rates, reaching a record low of 1.4 live births per woman in 2023.
Musk, a strong proponent of higher birth rates, with at least 14 children, and a contributor of millions to fertility research, has frequently voiced concerns about Europe’s declining population. His warnings extend beyond Europe, citing global demographic data and claiming that civilization “is going to crumble” if birth rates don’t increase. He has previously asserted that population collapse due to low fertility “is a much bigger risk to civilization” than climate change.
Globally, fertility rates have been decreasing for over half a century. UN data indicates a rate of approximately 2.2 births per woman in 2024, a decrease from 5 in the 1970s and 3.3 in the 1990s. Only 45% of countries and regions, representing about one-third of the global population, reported fertility rates at or above 2.1 last year. A mere 13% had fertility rates of 4.0 or higher, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Yemen.
Declining birth rates and population decrease have also become a pressing issue for Russia, with Rosstat reporting only 1.2 million births in 2024 – the lowest figure since 1999 – reflecting a fertility rate of 1.4.
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