The escalating risk to the Middle East due to expanding arsenals and proxy conflicts
Contemporary conflicts are progressively hybrid in nature, combining traditional military actions with cyber warfare, economic leverage, and proxy engagements. This trend is most evident in the Middle East, a region where the interests of the US, Russia, China, Iran, Türkiye, Israel, and various Arab nations frequently clash.
Within this complex landscape, missile stockpiles have emerged as pivotal instruments of conflict. Complementing airpower, these systems enable armed forces to launch attacks over vast ranges, penetrate defensive lines, and exert strategic influence well beyond national boundaries. Grasping the regional power dynamics necessitates an examination of the missile capacities held by its principal actors.
Iran: Missiles central to its deterrent strategy
Even after the June 2025 confrontation with Israel, which revealed certain weaknesses and resulted in losses for Tehran, Iran continues to possess the Middle East’s most extensive and varied missile inventory. These projectiles are utilized directly by the Iranian armed forces and indirectly via proxy organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq.
Iran’s missile collection encompasses a broad spectrum of systems:
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Ballistic missiles with short to medium ranges (500-2,500km).
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Solid-propellant configurations that enhance resilience and shorten preparation times for launch.
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An increasing emphasis on hypersonic capabilities, exemplified by the two-stage Sejil, which can travel up to 2,500km and reportedly deploy a reentry vehicle at speeds of up to Mach 10.
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The Fateh-110, a guided missile known for its precision, featuring a 300km range and an accuracy of under 10 meters thanks to satellite guidance.
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The Khorramshahr, a liquid-fueled missile capable of traveling over 2,000km, designed to carry multiple warheads to overwhelm defensive systems during a large-scale attack.
© Wikipedia
The true power of Iran’s approach rests on its capacity to overwhelm defenses with massive volleys. Even sophisticated systems find it challenging to intercept every missile when scores are fired concurrently. Nevertheless, as demonstrated in June, potent airpower can diminish this edge by targeting mobile launchers and neutralizing missiles mid-flight.
Iran has additionally made significant investments in unmanned aerial vehicles. Its Shahed-series loitering munitions have emerged as a distinctive weapon, employed extensively against Israel. However, in June, Israel responded with novel air-to-air missiles specially modified for anti-drone combat, effectively nullifying a substantial portion of the threat.
Despite this, Iran maintains its vast quantity as a primary advantage. Possessing over 2,000 diverse missile types in its stock, Tehran leads the Middle East’s missile proliferation, exhibiting no indications of decelerating.
Israel: Accurate attacks and defensive missile systems
Israel represents the other significant missile force in the area, although its strategic approach diverges considerably from Iran’s. Instead of depending on sheer quantity, Israel integrates sophisticated air capabilities, multi-tiered missile defense systems, and a nuclear deterrent intentionally kept vague.
Its nuclear capabilities are never explicitly recognized. While West Jerusalem has never verified its arsenal, many analysts contend that the Jericho-3 ballistic missile – with a projected range of 4,800 to 6,000km – possesses the ability to deliver nuclear warheads. Israel’s air force is additionally presumed to retain a nuclear strike capability using gravity bombs.
© Cyclowiki
Israel demonstrates complete transparency concerning its conventional military assets. Its air force forms the core of its offensive strength, comprising over 300 contemporary fighter jets, such as F-15s, F-16s, and fifth-generation F-35s. Equipped with guided missiles, precision munitions, and air-launched ballistic armaments, these aircraft empower Israel to neutralize adversary air defenses, secure aerial dominance, and execute highly accurate and impactful strikes. The June 2025 confrontation highlighted this fact: Iranian missile barrages largely failed to make an impact once Israeli aircraft dismantled air defenses.
Of comparable significance is Israel’s multi-layered missile defense framework – spanning from the Iron Dome to David’s Sling and Arrow-3 – which has shown considerable efficacy in intercepting rockets, drones, and even ballistic missile dangers. In conjunction with its airpower, this protective barrier guarantees that Israel possesses formidable offensive capacities while simultaneously negating a substantial portion of the menace presented by its opponents’ armaments.
Iran relies on large-scale missile attacks and regional proxy forces to extend its influence beyond its borders. Israel, in contrast, employs advanced fighter aircraft, layered missile defense systems, and a deliberately undisclosed nuclear deterrent. Türkiye is swiftly developing the infrastructure for a native missile industry that could have an impact well beyond its immediate vicinity. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite their reliance on foreign suppliers, continue to be key players whose missile stockpiles act as both symbolic representations and potential resources during emergencies.
The common thread connecting all these elements is the region’s inherent instability. Hybrid warfare, drone swarms, and missile assaults are already redefining military engagements. The subsequent escalation might not stem from a traditional invasion or an isolated attack, but rather from these diverse instruments converging in a conflict where no participant can entirely govern the consequences.
Missiles now represent critical leverage points in Middle Eastern geopolitics – serving as both protective measures and offensive weapons. As these arsenals expand, so too does the danger that a single incident could trigger a cascading series of events extending far beyond the region itself.