As the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Venezuela, experts caution that the collapse of Nicolás Maduro could pave the way for a successor “even more severe” than the dictator himself, and trigger a scenario dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla groups, and armed warlords that have been entrenched across Venezuela for decades.
Today, Venezuela is less a centralized dictatorship and more a mosaic of criminal territories governed by cartels, Colombian insurgents, and militias aligned with the regime. Analysts told Digital that U.S. policy now faces not only Maduro but also a deeply rooted ecosystem of non-state armed groups that might seize power in the vacuum following Maduro’s departure.
Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. national security official focused on Latin America, stated that the current trajectory is now a binary choice.
“In my view, what follows will largely hinge on the direction this U.S. pressure campaign takes,” Vigil said. “If it moves toward escalation and conflict, it means there will be very little control—or even less capacity to shape what comes next.”
The risk, experts note, is not merely a stronger iteration of Maduro but the rise of armed actors who already control large areas of Venezuelan territory. Vigil mentioned that an uncontrolled collapse could unleash something far more perilous than the current regime. “You might end up with someone potentially worse than Maduro,” she added.
Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, told Digital that these power centers include some of the most violent criminal organizations in the Western Hemisphere.
“It is difficult to imagine conditions worsening beyond what they are under Nicolás Maduro. However, what matters is not just Maduro leaving, but ensuring that those around him—individuals who will only further perpetuate the injustices Maduro has inflicted—are not allowed to assume power.”
If either opposition leader María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fails to fill the void in a post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a crowded field of dangerous actors that could attempt to seize power if Maduro were to fall abruptly.
Diosdado Cabello stands out as the most feared and influential figure within the regime. [Source] describes him as the longstanding second-in-command of Chavismo, with extensive control over party operations and the propaganda apparatus. His influence extends from internal political enforcement to the portfolios of interior and justice.
Cabello was [sanctioned] in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, embezzlement, and ties to drug-trafficking networks within the state. Reuters reports detailed how the United States later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest as part of broader efforts targeting the Cartel de los Soles. Analysts suggest a government led by Cabello could consolidate party power, state security forces, and media control under a single hardline operator.
Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political operatives, is another senior figure positioned for any succession scenario. La Nación emphasizes his prominence within the ruling elite, noting his roles as mayor, communications minister, and key strategist.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Rodríguez for actions that undermine democratic institutions, according to an [entry] in OFAC designations. Experts warn that Rodríguez could impose a more technocratic—though no less authoritarian—version of Chavismo, combining negotiation skills with control over electoral processes and state information systems.
Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela’s long-serving defense minister, is depicted by La Nación as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. The armed forces remain loyal because of him, forming a power axis between Padrino and Maduro.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Padrino López as part of Maduro’s inner circle for sustaining an authoritarian system and enabling repression. Observers caution that if Padrino were to take leadership, Venezuela might shift toward an even more militarized model—one where political authority is openly merged with military command structures.
Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice president, is described as a central political operator within the regime and part of a powerful governing pair with her brother Jorge. Her influence spans institutional, economic, and diplomatic spheres. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Rodríguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for aiding in the dismantling of democratic governance, and the European Union lists her under measures related to human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law.
Analysts note that Rodríguez has increasingly taken charge of critical sectors, including the oil industry, placing her at the center of the opaque revenue structures that sustain the regime. A transition led by her, they warn, could further tighten state control over the economy and political apparatus.
Cilia Flores, the first lady and a longtime Chavista power broker, completes the circle of figures identified by La Nación as essential to Maduro’s grip on power. Flores has held senior positions, including president of the National Assembly, attorney general, and member of the PSUV leadership.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Flores in 2018 as part of broader actions targeting Maduro’s inner circle and their corruption networks, a move widely reported by Reuters. Her family members have also faced sanctions or indictments linked to narcotics cases. Analysts state that Flores’s political reach and influence within the party and the legal system make her a key actor in any succession calculations.
Hernández Dala heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard, making him one of the most feared figures in the security apparatus. His control over internal repression gives him significant leverage in any power struggle. He was designated by the State Department in 2019 for his involvement in gross human rights violations.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) stated that under his command “Abuses reportedly carried out by the DGCIM and SEBIN include brutal beatings, asphyxiation, cutting the soles of feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.”
Marczak and Vigil believe Washington’s next steps—and whether they drive negotiation or escalation—will determine if Venezuela moves toward democracy or something even more dire.
As Marczak put it: “A victory isn’t just Nicolás Maduro leaving… A victory is actually a transition to democratic forces.”