As indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran got underway in Oman on Friday, comments made earlier in the week by a vice president regarding the Supreme Leader’s absence from the talks have presented a key puzzle for Washington — the individual with ultimate authority in Tehran isn’t at the negotiating table.
In the interview, Vance stated, “Dealing diplomatically with a nation where you can’t even converse with the person in charge is really odd. This makes everything much more complicated… It’s strange that we can’t simply engage with the actual leadership of the country. It truly complicates diplomacy to a great extent,” he said on Megyn Kelly’s podcast.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has held his position since 1989 and remains the nation’s top political and religious figure, having full control over military, security, and strategic decisions. This concentration of power means any diplomatic result has to ultimately go through him.
Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, told Digital that Khamenei’s authority comes from directly controlling Iran’s core power centers. “‘He is very powerful because he is the commander in chief of the armed forces and appoints the heads of the IRGC, the Artesh (conventional military), the judiciary, and other significant institutions,'” he said.
Azodi also noted that protocol and hierarchy account for Khamenei’s absence from negotiations. “‘Iranians are very strict about diplomatic protocols — since other countries don’t have a corresponding rank, he doesn’t take part in any negotiations because there’s no ‘equal’ rank,'” Azodi stated. “‘Even when foreign heads of state visit him, only the Iranian flag is present, and foreign flags aren’t permitted,'” he added.
Iranian sources privy to internal discussions characterized Khamenei as having a legacy-oriented mindset at this point in his life. “‘The supreme leader views his confrontation with Washington as defining his historical role and believes Iran can retaliate against U.S. interests in the region. Khamenei isn’t concerned about personal risk and sees strategic confrontation as part of preserving his legacy,'” said a Middle Eastern source speaking anonymously to Digital.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Digital that Khamenei remains the pivotal figure in Iran’s system despite the regime facing pressure both domestically and internationally.
“‘He wields substantial influence in Iran and also holds the greatest veto power in Iran’s political hierarchy,'” Ben Taleblu stated.
He further stated, “‘Iran’s strategy… is to increase the cost of war in the adversary’s calculations,'” describing a system that signals readiness to talk while simultaneously preparing for confrontation.
He cautioned that “‘regimes that are fearful, deadly, and weak can still be perilous,'” and mentioned that Tehran might think threatening U.S. assets could deter a wider war, even though such escalation risks provoking a stronger American reaction.
“‘It’s very hard to say what Khamenei’s mindset is, but I think he, along with other senior officials, believes that is not a standalone occurrence but rather the continuation of the June 2025 conflict and the recent protests, which he labeled ‘an American coup’,” Azodi told Digital.
“‘I think he believes the U.S. is definitely aiming for regime change and that this must be resisted at all costs,'” he added.
According to a journalist reporting from inside Iran, frustration with Khamenei has grown more apparent within the country.
“‘What people want above all else is for Khamenei to pass away… I hear this every day, everywhere I go — why doesn’t he die?'” the journalist told Digital.
“‘You just check Iranians’ Twitter… the tweet is, why don’t you die? And everyone knows who we’re referring to. So the nation is waiting for him to die.'”
The journalist stated that many Iranians no longer believe political reform is feasible and instead see generational change as the only turning point.
Exiled Iranian journalist Mehdi Ghadimi told Digital, “‘The Islamic government considers itself bound to enforce Islamic law globally. They harbor animosity toward Iranians and Jews, whom they see as enemies of Islam,’ he explained. ‘In this framework, the leader is seen as more than a political ruler; he’s perceived as God’s representative, while leaders of enemy states are viewed as representatives of Satan, which is why he never meets with them. If dialogue or compromise were to happen, his sacred image would crumble in the eyes of his supporters.'”
He went on, “‘For this reason, groups labeled ‘moderate,’ ‘reformist,’ or ‘pro-Western’ are created so the West can negotiate with them,’ Ghadimi added. ‘Within the Islamic Republic’s structure, no one thinks beyond defeating the Western world and establishing Islamic dominance globally. The diplomats presented to Western politicians as moderates are tasked with using diplomacy to gain time for Khamenei.'”
The negotiations occur against the backdrop of heightened regional tensions, U.S. military deployments, and unresolved disputes regarding and missile capabilities.
Regional analysts state that for the U.S., the core challenge remains the same. Diplomats can negotiate, but the final decision lies with one man — a leader molded by decades of confrontation with the U.S., focused on regime survival and determined to preserve his legacy even as Iran enters another round of talks.