Amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, analysts say the Trump administration should to fulfill its commitments to disarm the Iran-backed terrorist group as it pulls the country into another war with Israel.
David Schenker, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs who oversaw Lebanon’s policy during the first Trump administration and now leads the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The U.S. should make clear to Lebanon that it’s time for the state to honor its ceasefire commitment to disarm Hezbollah,” he told Digital. Schenker warned that if Beirut “doesn’t pursue disarmament, it will remain a failed state.”
The warning comes as the IDF targeted multiple Hezbollah sites Friday in response to the terror group’s launch of rockets and drones at Israel on March 2—its first attack since a November 2024 ceasefire ended the prior round of fighting.
Since the renewed fighting began, the IDF has carried out over 200 strikes across Lebanon aimed at Hezbollah’s military, media, and financial infrastructure, as well as operatives from the group and affiliated networks, according to a March 5 analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also threatened Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem.
The renewed hostilities have exposed deep tensions within Lebanon’s government, which in recent days and ordered security agencies to prevent attacks on Israel from Lebanese territory.
Schenker says the move reflects frustration in Beirut rather than a fundamental policy shift. “Lebanon’s government’s latest cabinet vote on Hezbollah disarmament is nothing new,” Schenker said. “It’s a repeat of the August cabinet decision mandating Hezbollah’s disarmament. The language may be more forceful, but the message is the same.”
“It shows the government’s frustration and desperation over Hezbollah dragging Lebanon into yet another war with ,” he added. “It also highlights the Lebanese Armed Forces’ failure so far to take its disarmament mission seriously.”
Hezbollah’s recent attacks appear to have caught Lebanese officials by surprise. Reports suggest the group had previously assured officials it would not intervene in a broader regional conflict tied to Iran.
Schenker said the episode underscores a longstanding reality in Lebanon’s political system. “Lebanon’s government has never tried to control Hezbollah,” he said. “The few months the LAF spent on disarmament in southern Lebanon were done with Hezbollah’s consent and coordinated with the militia.”
Still, public frustration inside may be shifting the political environment. “Given the population’s growing anger at Hezbollah now, the political climate should be more favorable for the LAF to confront Hezbollah,” Schenker said.
“The fear of ‘civil war’—meaning Hezbollah using violence against the government—remains,” he added. “But increasingly, Lebanese prefer taking that risk and possibly gaining sovereignty over being in a state of perpetual war with Israel.”
In a clip posted on X by the Center for Peace Communications, Lebanese citizens reacted angrily to Hezbollah’s actions, with one man telling Jusoor News: “If Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem wants to commit suicide, let him do it in Tehran, not Lebanon.”
According to David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Hezbollah’s decision to attack Israel despite the ceasefire reflects the group’s willingness to even as Lebanon’s government seeks to avoid another war.
The crisis has also drawn international attention. French President called for urgent steps to prevent Lebanon from sliding deeper into war.
“Everything must be done to keep this country—so close to France—from being drawn into war again,” Macron wrote in a statement posted on X on March 5 after speaking with , Benjamin Netanyahu, and Lebanese leaders.
Macron said Hezbollah “must immediately cease its fire toward Israel,” while urging Israel to avoid expanding military operations inside Lebanon.
For now, analysts say the outcome may depend on whether Lebanon’s government is willing to confront Hezbollah directly or continue tolerating Iran’s terror proxy, which has long operated outside the government’s control.