Increasingly brutal evidence of the regime’s crackdown on its own citizens is spreading online, as the actual death toll from Iran’s protests remains fiercely disputed amid internet shutdowns and government intimidation. Activists, media reports, and medical data suggest the numbers range from thousands of confirmed fatalities to tens of thousands feared dead.
Fatemeh Jamalpour, an Iranian journalist who has reported on every major protest movement over the last twenty years, stated that the current unrest marks a turning point in how the regime deploys force. “The regime’s violence has escalated dramatically, and with the internet blackout, determining the true extent of the killings is extremely difficult.”
“What I’ve witnessed in these protests that is unprecedented is that beginning on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, Basij, and riot police, permitting them to fire directly at protesters,” Jamalpour told Digital.
“In earlier protests, military-grade weapons were primarily deployed in minority regions like Kurdistan and Baluchestan,” she added. “Now they’ve been used throughout the entire nation… Health Ministry officials informed us they exhausted their supply of body bags for the deceased.”
The most frequently referenced baseline originates from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a U.S.-based organization that monitors fatalities by name and location.
As of January 25, HRANA documented 5,848 confirmed deaths. This includes 5,520 protesters, 77 minors under 18, 209 government-aligned forces, and 42 non-protesters or civilians. An additional 17,091 fatalities remain under investigation.
The organization has stressed that its verified count only includes cases that could be independently substantiated, and anticipates that total numbers will increase as more information becomes available.
Per The Associated Press, Iranian officials have provided only a single official tally of 3,117, which they haven’t publicly updated in five days. The authorities have not disclosed names, locations, or any documentation to substantiate this number.
In addition to human rights counts, a separate medical working paper examined by Digital indicates the death toll could be substantially higher.
The Munich Med Group report, written by Professor Dr. Amir-Mobarez Parasta, compiles hospital-recorded deaths and employs what the author calls a conservative extrapolation model to adjust for underreporting during the communications shutdown.
Applying this methodology, the paper projects a national death toll of roughly 33,130 individuals as of January 23. The author emphasizes this is not a confirmed count, but rather a conservative estimate derived from incomplete medical data and specific assumptions.
Another media outlet conducted its own investigation, asserting it examined documents suggesting over 36,500 people were killed during just two days of protests on January 8 and 9. The publication stated the documents were supplied by sources within Iran, though these allegations have not been independently corroborated.
The substantial discrepancy between these figures underscores not only the magnitude of the violence, but also the challenging circumstances in which it took place.
Jamalpour noted that despite the internet blackout, physicians and medical personnel tried to record their observations using restricted satellite connections.
“Numerous doctors and medical staff attempted to transmit their reports and evidence to us via limited Starlink connections,” she explained. “Healthcare workers report that protesters were frequently shot in the head and neck, indicating an intent to kill. Many victims were struck by multiple bullets. Some were shot in the back while attempting to escape.”
Jamalpour stated that the victims she recorded represented a generation that the regime seemed intent on destroying. “The deceased include children and a 67-year-old man, but the majority are young individuals under 30,” she said.
Jamalpour recounted the killing of Mehdi Khanmohammadi, a 67-year-old retired army colonel and pilot. “He was fatally shot twice on Friday, January 9, in Saadat Abad,” she said. “In a video, his daughter stands over his motionless body asking, Can you open your eyes and wake up?”
She said such scenes have plunged the nation into widespread mourning. “Iranians are currently in a state of shock,” Jamalpour stated. “Grief is pervasive throughout the country.”
Simultaneously, she cautioned that the repression is ongoing. “Legal professionals and human rights groups are gravely worried about over 20,000 detained protesters who remain in custody,” she said.
Yet despite the atmosphere of fear, Jamalpour reported hearing a new sentiment within Iran. “In my discussions with people inside the country, I detect hope that Trump will assist in liberating Iran,” she said. “Along with a resolve to overthrow the regime, now mixed with anger and sorrow.”