Iran conflict puts Pakistan to the test amid its own border clashes as Islamabad is promoted as venue for U.S.-Tehran talks

(SeaPRwire) –   Pakistan is navigating a delicate balancing act as the conflict involving Iran escalates, a position that becomes increasingly unstable daily.

To date, Islamabad has employed a strategy of careful diplomacy, condemning the attacks on Iran while also calling for a reduction in hostilities. However, experts caution that the nation cannot avoid the mounting pressures from opposing sides indefinitely.

“Pakistan is presenting itself as a potential mediator between the U.S. and Iran, though not very persuasively,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated to Digital. “Its history of avoiding military conflicts is not particularly strong.”

A key factor in these tensions is a recent mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, which declares that an attack on either nation will be considered a threat to both. Regarded as one of Pakistan’s most significant defense commitments, it aligns the country closely with Riyadh, thereby increasing the potential for a clash with Iran.

As the sole Muslim nation with nuclear weapons, Pakistan already stations military personnel in Saudi Arabia for training and defensive purposes and has stated unequivocally that it will assist the kingdom if needed.

“It is important to recall that Pakistan’s geography places it within South Asia, Central Asia, and the broader Gulf/MENA region. Our nation has consistently advocated for peace, dialogue, and stability because we are acutely aware of the consequences of war in our region,” Mosharraf Zaidi, the Pakistani prime minister’s spokesperson for foreign media, explained to Digital.

Shortly after the war began, Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, paid an “emergency” visit to Saudi Arabia, where senior leaders deliberated on coordinated reactions to Iranian attacks. This served as the inaugural practical assessment of the new agreement.

The bond between the two countries is robust, and Saudi Arabia continues to be a vital economic partner for Islamabad. Riyadh has already taken steps to secure energy supplies for Pakistan, which is heavily reliant on imports and vulnerable to fuel shortages caused by the war.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s ties with Iran are also of great importance.

The neighbors share a 565-mile border, substantial commercial links, and deep religious affiliations.

Pakistan hosts the world’s second-largest Shia population after Iran. Recent protests supporting the Iranian regime following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei turned violent within Pakistan, necessitating military deployment and curfews.

Sustaining a relationship with Tehran is essential for managing internal dissent and preventing an uprising from the minority Baloch community along the border.

Iran is also a significant economic ally for Pakistan, which is grappling with a severe financial crisis. Bilateral trade is considerable, with a new target set at $10 billion by 2028.

Pakistan’s foreign minister has maintained “constant communication” with his Iranian colleague during the conflict. Last week, a Pakistani oil tanker navigated the effectively blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Observers highlighted it was the first foreign vessel to transit the strait since hostilities intensified, implying a negotiated safe passage agreement. Authorities have indicated that additional oil tankers destined for Pakistan are expected to follow in the near future.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for the majority of Pakistan’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports. However, as the conflict persists, analysts caution that Pakistan’s ability to remain neutral is diminishing.

Pakistan recently opposed Iran by supporting a Gulf-coordinated resolution at the United Nations that denounced regional aggression. Russia and China chose to abstain from the vote.

Concurrently, Iran’s foreign minister has requested regional cooperation in separate discussions with the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt.

Simultaneously, Islamabad must also carefully manage its relationship with Washington, another crucial ally.

During President Donald Trump’s second term, Pakistan has aimed to strengthen its ties with the U.S., even proposing him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Questions are also being raised in Washington. At a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt mentioned the administration is working with the Pentagon to evaluate whether Pakistan is aiding Iran, while characterizing India as a “good actor.”

India’s stance has increased the pressure on Pakistan, particularly following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent trip to Israel.

“There is no inconsistency in being fully dedicated to peace, dialogue, and stability. Pakistan’s strong connections with the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China demonstrate this commitment,” stated Zaidi, the prime minister’s spokesperson.

Thus far, Pakistan has successfully placed itself at the center of diplomatic initiatives to resolve the conflict, utilizing its relationships with all three major powers.

According to reports, high-level discussions between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to take place in Islamabad as soon as this weekend.

“Pakistan desires to be significant to the U.S. and to be a more reliable partner than India. Since the Afghan Taliban’s estrangement from Islamabad began in 2021, there are few major disagreements left between the U.S. and Pakistan, allowing the latter to position itself as an anti-terrorism ally,” Fitton-Brown said. “Most actors in the region wish for the crisis to end quickly. However, no one wants to see the Islamic Republic’s power in Iran grow.”

The expanding conflict arrives at a challenging moment for Pakistan’s military, which is already overextended. Hostilities with India remain high, and border skirmishes, airstrikes, drone attacks, and increasing civilian deaths have become commonplace with formerly friendly Afghanistan.

The two countries plunged into an “all-out war” shortly before the Iran conflict started, and the fighting continues unabated following recent Pakistani airstrikes that targeted the Afghan capital, Kabul.

“This geographical reality and the history of our region are why Pakistan firmly resists India’s attempts at regional dominance and why we are seeking to end the Afghan Taliban regime’s backing of terrorist organizations,” Zaidi said. “Our goal is the complete halt of terrorism originating from areas under the Afghan Taliban’s control.”

With Pakistan already contending with instability on its eastern border with India and its western border with Afghanistan, further unrest in Iran could exacerbate the situation.

“If Islamabad were to become destabilized, it would have profoundly negative consequences both regionally and globally,” Edmund Fitton-Brown told Fox. “The prospect of a nuclear-armed state governed by jihadis is a scenario too alarming to contemplate.”