In case Cuba falls, who assumes power? Castro dynasty casts a shadow over the island’s future

(SeaPRwire) –   This week, President Donald Trump indicated that the United States might take action regarding Cuba, sparking fresh questions about what could unfold if mounting pressure leads to a political shift on the island.

This warning comes as Cuba grapples with one of its most severe internal crises in decades, with a collapsing economy, widespread power outages, and fuel shortages straining the regime’s ability to govern. The situation has worsened as shipments of subsidized fuel from Venezuela have dwindled, cutting off a critical energy lifeline.

However, as pressure builds both from within and outside the island, experts say the central question is not who might replace President Miguel Díaz-Canel—it is that there is no clear successor at all.

“Cuba’s leadership void stems from a system that has spent decades ensuring no independent leadership can emerge in the first place,” Melissa Ford Maldonado, AFPI director of the Western Hemisphere Initiative, told Digital.

She added that the regime has “controlled communication, restricted public gatherings, monitored its own people, stifled press freedom, criminalized dissent, and ultimately made a strong opposition force highly improbable.”

“Who replaces Díaz-Canel is more symbolic than substantive,” Sebastián A. Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, told Digital.

Arcos noted that Díaz-Canel “wields very little power,” describing him as a figure installed to project a younger image without altering the system.

“The key individual remains Raúl Castro,” he said, referring to the 94-year-old former Cuban leader.

Analysts argue this dynamic explains why even a dramatic shift—whether driven by internal collapse or external pressure—may not immediately produce a new leader.

Nonetheless, a small group of insiders, technocrats, and opposition figures are viewed as potential players in any transition—though none represent a clear or unified alternative.

A figure largely unknown to most Cubans, Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga has quietly risen through the ranks.

The 54-year-old electronics engineer serves as deputy prime minister and minister of foreign trade and foreign investment, and is the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro.

“He’s part of the family,” Arcos said, emphasizing how even emerging figures remain entrenched within the same ruling network.

Arcos stated that his rapid ascent makes him one of the more plausible faces of a controlled transition.

“He might be a capable technocrat… by the standards of the Castro system,” he said.

But any such move would likely be superficial. “They might remove Díaz-Canel and replace him with someone like Pérez-Oliva… as a gesture… but it changes nothing,” Arcos said, explaining it would be a technocratic reshuffle aimed at easing pressure, not reforming the system.

Raúl Castro’s son, Alejandro Castro Espín, represents the regime’s security foundation.

A longtime intelligence official, he is closely linked to Cuba’s internal security apparatus and the inner circle of power, according to El País.

While not publicly positioned as a successor, his influence highlights how power remains concentrated within the Castro family and military-linked elite, which experts say could lead to a hardline continuity scenario centered on security control.

Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz remains one of the most visible figures in Cuba’s current leadership.

But Arcos noted that Marrero’s tenure is deeply tied to the country’s economic collapse. “He has been in office during this dramatic decline… so he is closely associated with the crisis,” he said.

Experts cited by El País similarly assess that figures like Marrero are unlikely to represent meaningful change, and that he embodies continuity tied to the current crisis, with little credibility for reform.

As a senior Communist Party official, Roberto Morales Ojeda represents the regime’s institutional core. His power lies within the party apparatus, enforcing loyalty and ideological control.

Like other insiders, he is seen as part of the continuity model rather than a break from it.

While regime insiders dominate succession discussions, opposition figures remain largely outside the island.

Rosa María Payá, a prominent activist and founder of Cuba Decide, has emerged as a leading voice for democratic change from exile.

“The Cuban opposition is organized; we are active both within Cuba and in the diaspora, and we have a specific plan,” Rosa María Payá told Digital. “Cubans do not need to be liberated from abroad and given a government. We are prepared to lead. What we require is for the United States and the international community to ensure that when this regime falls, the opposition has a seat at the table.”

“The first priority is political prisoners and guaranteeing basic civil liberties,” she outlined their plan. “They must be released immediately, and this must be a non-negotiable condition of any agreement. The second is dismantling the repressive apparatus… From there, the plan progresses to a transitional government, addressing the humanitarian situation, and establishing a clear timeline for free, internationally monitored elections.”

Arcos spoke positively about Payá’s role and the broader opposition movement. “They are honorable, respectful, intelligent individuals who want the best for Cuba,” he said. “They are not merely seeking power… they are acting out of a sense of duty.”

Still, analysts caution that the system leaves little room for an opposition-led transition in the near term.

“The reality is that much of Cuba’s genuine opposition no longer resides on the island,” Ford Maldonado said, noting that repression has pushed leadership into exile.

Despite speculation about individual names, experts say the real issue is structural.

“If Raúl dies tomorrow, that could open Pandora’s box,” Arcos said, suggesting internal power struggles could emerge.

Even then, he warned, the regime is unlikely to relinquish control easily after decades in power.

“There is likely no genuine path forward that goes through the Castros or the current regime,” Ford Maldonado said.

For now, Cuba’s succession question remains unresolved—not because there are no potential names, but because the system itself was designed to ensure no true alternative is waiting in the wings.