A new survey indicates potential trouble for the former president, though the Democrat’s lead may be smaller than it appears.
A New York Times poll released on Saturday shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a substantial lead over former President Donald Trump in the pivotal states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, the poll’s sampling data suggests the actual race could be much tighter.
Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, the survey of nearly 2,000 likely voters found Harris outperforming Trump by 50% to 46% across the three states. The poll was conducted between August 5 and 9, the week Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan consistently voted Democrat from 1992 until 2016, when Trump defied expectations and secured victories in all three. President Joe Biden managed to flip these Rust Belt states back in 2020, but by extremely narrow margins. Winning either Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, or Michigan and Wisconsin’s combined 25 votes, is crucial for both Harris and Trump in this November’s election.
While the poll suggests Harris is on track for a decisive win in all three states, a closer examination of its methodology indicates the Democrat’s lead might be an illusion. For instance, 45% of respondents in Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, compared to 39% who chose Trump. In reality, Biden won Michigan by less than three points, not the six suggested by the poll.
Similar discrepancies exist in Pennsylvania, where the poll’s sampling indicates Biden won by five points in 2020, compared to the actual margin of 1.2 points. In Wisconsin, the poll shows Biden winning by eight points, but the real margin was 0.6 points.
Considering this oversampling of Democrats, Harris and Trump are essentially tied statistically in all three states.
Despite this, the poll is one of several indicating Harris is closing in on Trump. According to an average of multiple polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Harris is currently leading Trump nationwide by 0.5%. In contrast, Trump was ahead of Biden by around three points just before the president suspended his reelection campaign last month.
Despite not releasing any policy positions and declining to answer questions from journalists since announcing her campaign, Harris has seen her favorability rating increase to 48%, up from 36% in February, based on previous New York Times/Siena polls. Trump’s favorability currently stands at 46%, up from 44% in February.