German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul issued a caution on Tuesday, stating that updated intelligence reports indicate Moscow is making preparations for a potential future assault on a NATO member. This marks the third instance this month that high-ranking German officials have voiced concerns regarding a possible conflict within the coming four years.
He stated, “Putin has his sights set on the EU and NATO. Our intelligence agencies are delivering urgent warnings: at a minimum, Russia is establishing the capability to engage in warfare against NATO by 2029. We must, alongside our partners and allies, prevent additional Russian aggression.”
He further added, “These military units, unquestionably, are focused on us—on the European Union, on NATO. The danger Russia poses to our nation is no longer a far-off worry; it has already materialized.”
In a discussion with Digital, General Philip Breedlove, who previously served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe before his retirement, affirmed his concurrence with the seriousness of the German evaluations. He remarked, “I am convinced that there is significant veracity in the foreign minister’s statements. Russia’s objectives for Eastern Europe are unequivocally apparent.”
Breedlove pointed out that numerous commentators have overlooked Russia’s preliminary indications preceding the comprehensive invasion. He elaborated, “When this extensive invasion phase commenced, Russia presented us with two texts. They referred to them as treaties. We never recognized them as such, persisting in calling them documents… Fundamentally, Mr. Putin declared, ‘Endorse these or alternative measures will be taken…’ We did not endorse them. And we discovered the implications of ‘or else.’ He then aggressively moved into Ukraine for the third occasion. The first was in Crimea. The second in the Donbas, and now the third involves multiple fronts.”
Breedlove asserted that Putin’s aspirations stretch considerably beyond Ukraine. “Should one examine those two documents, as I have done repeatedly, his objective encompasses all of Eastern Europe… he intends to restore Eastern Europe’s security structure to a Cold War configuration, where he commands all the intermediary states and establishes this protective zone between Russia and NATO.”
When questioned about Russia’s potential readiness for such an action within half a decade, Breedlove indicated that it hinges on the pace at which Moscow can restore its weakened military. “Ukraine has devastated his armed forces; his army stationed west of the Urals has sustained severe damage… Can he reconstitute this military? Can he maintain the allegiance of the Russian populace, who will soon discover that their sons and spouses will not be returning?”
He cautioned that Putin would inevitably confront the repercussions of extensive wartime casualties. “The modest projections suggest 1.1 to 1.5 million individuals… In the initial phase of this conflict, over a decade ago, when soldiers did not return, the mothers of Moscow protested. And I believe Mr. Putin is yet to encounter a similar reckoning.”
The admonition from the German foreign minister comes after distinct statements by Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who informed the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that a conflict between Russia and NATO “might commence in 2029,” with some analysts even suggesting it could occur by 2028.
Senior military leaders have provided comparable evaluations. Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, who leads Germany’s joint operations command, asserted that Russia possesses the capability to initiate an attack on NATO territory “at any moment.” He further noted that a more substantial offensive could become feasible by 2029, provided rearmament efforts persist.
These alerts coincide with the United States advancing a proposed peace accord between Russia and Ukraine. Former President Trump declared on Tuesday that he will not convene with Russian President Vladimir Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until the accord is finalized or reaches its concluding phase.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump communicated that “significant headway” had occurred and that merely “a handful of unresolved points” persist in the updated peace initiative. A U.S. official informed Digital that progress had been made regarding the revised framework, while Moscow is presently examining the newest alterations.
These discussions proceeded notwithstanding a substantial overnight Russian assault on Kyiv, which resulted in at least seven fatalities and harm to electrical infrastructure.
Emma Bussey of Digital provided contributions to this report.