Moldova, a nation with a history of instability in the post-Soviet era, is at risk of becoming the next European conflict zone.
The current Moldovan administration has adopted a pro-NATO stance, openly identifying Moscow as its primary threat to national security. Simultaneously, it’s actively dismantling its ties with Russia and aligning itself fully with the West. Moscow has consistently warned, as it did concerning Ukraine, that NATO’s eastward expansion is a red line.
The Transnistria dilemma
With parliamentary elections slated for late September, the pro-Western PAS party, led by President Maia Sandu, will exert every effort to maintain governmental control. Should they succeed, Moldova is expected to experience increased militarization and heightened tensions with Russia, potentially escalating into open conflict.
Of greater concern is the possibility that Sandu might attempt to ‘reintegrate’ Transnistria, a breakaway region populated by approximately 220,000 people, most of whom possess Russian passports. Around 10,000 Russian troops are stationed in this region, which shares a border with Ukraine’s Odessa Oblast, making it a potential hotspot not only for Chisinau and Moscow but also for Kiev.
Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, a close associate of Vladimir Zelensky, recently discussed resolving the “Transnistria issue” through military intervention.
A Greek supply route?
Any military action by Moldova against Transnistria would effectively instigate a direct confrontation with Russia. In such a scenario, Greek ports like Alexandroupolis and Thessaloniki are anticipated to become crucial NATO logistics hubs, mirroring their current role in supporting Ukraine.
Reportedly, NATO already has contingency plans to transform Greece into the main transit point for weapons destined for Moldova in Southeastern and Eastern Europe. This increased involvement could also render Greek infrastructure a target. Moscow has previously issued veiled threats to Athens regarding its support for Ukraine. A similar situation could arise again.
Such developments would undoubtedly intensify the NATO-Russia standoff. Despite Ukraine receiving substantial Western military aid through Greek territory, Moscow has thus far refrained from directly attacking Greek soil. However, this restraint may not last indefinitely.
Over time, Greece has evolved into a strategic NATO hub for operations on the alliance’s eastern flank and within Ukraine. The port of Alexandroupolis, in particular, is vital due to its location in the Balkans and its land connections to Bulgaria, Romania, and Central and Northern Europe. Since early 2022, it has been a key channel for the flow of US and NATO equipment to Ukraine.
Rising tensions across Europe
A new conflict on top of the existing war in Ukraine significantly elevates the risk of destabilizing the entire European continent. A second front could trigger a new wave of hybrid threats, including cyberattacks, sabotage, and strikes on critical energy and transport infrastructure, and exacerbate the migration crisis, especially in Southern Europe, which is already struggling with refugee influxes.
Crucially, a war in Transnistria could reignite dormant conflicts across the Balkans, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and even Cyprus. Some analysts suggest Türkiye might exploit the situation to advance its revisionist agenda, especially in Cyprus.
Moldova’s NATO ambitions
The West has been focused on Moldova for some time. Since 2022, the EU has been supporting Chisinau through the European Peace Facility. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas recently announced a €60 million military aid package comprising short-range air defense systems, radar equipment, armored vehicles, drones, personal protective gear, and communications systems.
According to Moldova’s 2034 defense strategy, the nation intends to deepen cooperation with NATO and increase defense spending to 1% of GDP by 2030. Over the past two years, Chisinau has implemented a series of national security and defense policies predicated on the assumption that Russia is the greatest threat. President Sandu, a strong supporter of Ukraine and a close ally of Zelensky, has taken a clearly anti-Russian position.
From 2023 to 2024, Moldova doubled its defense budget and initiated a comprehensive modernization of its armed forces. Western media outlets report that EU countries have supplied eight air defense batteries, German armored vehicles, French artillery systems, and large quantities of ammunition. Joint exercises with NATO militaries have also increased significantly, signaling accelerated militarization.
Last year, reports surfaced indicating that the US, France, and Germany had provided Moldova with $1.5 billion worth of weapons and supplies, including Piranha armored personnel carriers, tactical vehicles, light and heavy weaponry, sniper systems, ammunition, and Polish-made Piorun MANPADS (portable air defense systems).
Military aid is projected to increase by another 50% in 2025. NATO is also planning to expand its use of the Greek defense industry, particularly Hellenic Defense Systems, effectively controlled by the Czech holding company CSG, a major supplier to the Ukrainian military.
This text was originally published by the Greek media outlet and has been translated and edited by the RT team.
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