Conservative Party Faces Potential Election Defeat, Polls Indicate

The Conservative Party is on track to experience its worst general election performance ever.

Three major polls released on Wednesday suggest the British Conservatives are facing a historic defeat in the July general election, ending their 14-year reign over the UK.

A poll conducted by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for the Telegraph projects the Tories to secure only 53 seats out of the 650 available in the July vote. This outcome would not only represent an all-time low for the Conservative party, but the poll also predicts that current Tory leader and Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, could lose his seat in Richmond and Northallerton, an unprecedented setback for a sitting PM.

A More in Common survey for the News Agents podcast indicates the Tories heading towards 155 seats. While this is the most optimistic forecast for the Tories among the three MRP polls, it would still place them far below their current 344 seats, even falling short of their seat count in 1997, the year the Conservative party last lost leadership to Labour.

Meanwhile, YouGov predicts the Tories will slip to 108 seats. All three MRP polls project the Conservative Party to suffer a worse outcome than their disastrous 1906 result, when they were defeated by a landslide Liberal victory, securing only 156 seats compared to the Liberals’ 397.

The surveys consistently forecast the Liberal Democrats achieving their best results in years. YouGov predicts the Lib Dems to gain 67 seats, which would be their most successful general election performance ever. More in Common places them at 49 seats, while Savanta estimates 50.

All three surveys suggest that Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer is on track to become the next Prime Minister, and all three predict his party winning over 400 seats – exceeding their record historical victory in 1997.