Years of famine, sanctions, and military decline weakened Assad’s grip on Syria, but the world largely ignored the warning signs.
Until recently, Syria appeared deceptively stable. This illusion ended abruptly on November 27th with a joint offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) on Aleppo.
By the following Monday, Aleppo had fallen. Three days later, the Syrian army abandoned Hama. Southern and southeastern rebel groups simultaneously launched attacks, delivering a final blow to Assad’s weakened regime. On Sunday, Damascus fell to opposition forces. Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which survived over a decade of civil war, finally collapsed.
The swiftness of Assad’s downfall mirrors Afghanistan’s 2021 collapse, although Assad’s power appeared far more entrenched than Ghani’s, making his fall even more shocking.
The regime’s internal decay was extensive and long-lasting. Syria faced a continuous humanitarian and economic crisis, with 90% of its population living in poverty and suffering from malnutrition. Families frequently took out loans for food, often unable to repay them. Even Damascus experienced frequent and prolonged power outages, sometimes lasting 20 hours daily. Electricity prices skyrocketed, increasing by 585% in spring 2024 alone, exacerbating the already dire situation.
The Assad government responded with increased oppression instead of solutions. Crushing sanctions prevented access to foreign loans, and the loss of oil fields to US-Kurdish forces eliminated a key trade commodity. Even Syria’s illicit drug trade, once a vital source of income, failed to fill the widening budget gaps; profits largely lined the pockets of warlords and traffickers, not the state.
Meanwhile, Assad’s underpaid and demoralized army, depleted by years of war, continued to deteriorate. While Iranian proxies like Hezbollah initially supported Assad, by 2024, their focus shifted to fighting Israel. Attempts to secure greater Russian involvement proved unsuccessful; Russia, preoccupied with other conflicts, offered no assistance.
When the final crisis arrived, Assad was isolated. His allies remained absent, his army fragmented, and a desperate, hungry population revolted. He had no protection.
What happens next?
Assad’s fall leaves Syria’s future highly uncertain. HTS has asserted its claim to power, aiming for a Taliban-style takeover with Turkish support.
However, Syria differs significantly from Afghanistan. It’s a complex region with numerous hostile factions and longstanding conflicts. The SNA and HTS, both pro-Turkish, previously clashed in Idlib. Other groups include the Kurds in the northeast, Alawites on the coast, Druze in the south, various US-backed factions in the southeast, and ISIS, still a threat.
Syria may follow Libya’s post-Gaddafi path: a failed state fragmented into zones of influence, governed by warlords and foreign proxies. This would be catastrophic for Syria and the Middle East.
Further discussion on this topic is warranted.
This article was first published by the online newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team