Analysts warn Hezbollah arms impasse could spark civil war as US readies Israel-Lebanon negotiations

(SeaPRwire) –   As Israel and Lebanon resume U.S.-brokered talks in Washington on Thursday, the core issue that has derailed every prior attempt to reach a lasting agreement remains front and center: What will happen to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terror organization?

An Israeli official told Digital that the meeting, hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will be attended by senior U.S. officials — U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Counselor Michael Needham — as well as Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh.

A State Department spokesperson described the initial April 14 meeting as “productive.” “We will continue to enable direct, good-faith discussions between the two governments,” the spokesperson told Digital.

The meeting takes place as a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire reached in mid-April is holding for the time being, creating what officials call a narrow diplomatic window after weeks of cross-border fighting.

But the truce has not addressed the root causes of the conflict — it has only put the fighting on hold.

According to previous reporting, the latest outbreak of violence began on March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern border, opening a new front in the regional war just days after U.S.–Israeli strikes targeted Iran on February 28.

Israel retaliated with sustained air and ground operations across southern Lebanon designed to push Hezbollah forces away from the border, while Hezbollah continued to fire rockets and drones into northern Israeli territory.

The fighting displaced more than a million people across Lebanon and forced Israeli civilians to take shelter in designated safe spaces, highlighting the large scale of the escalation.

Now, even as hostilities have temporarily calmed, the core conditions that led to the war remain unchanged, leaving negotiators to work through the same unresolved question at the heart of the conflict.

A senior U.S. official with knowledge of the negotiations outlined the core impasse: Hezbollah will not agree to lay down its arms without a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Israel will not pull out of the area unless Hezbollah disarms first.

International mechanisms — including the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and a multilateral coordination group — have been working to resolve this standoff since late 2024, with no success to date.

The same official also noted that Lebanese president Joseph Aoun is not necessarily the deciding voice in these discussions; instead, Nabih Berri, speaker of the nation’s House of Representatives, is the figure who holds actual authority, not Aoun.

At the same time, Hezbollah has continued to oppose any contact with Israel and still wields significant influence over Lebanon’s political and security decisions, creating obstacles for U.S. efforts to move the talks forward.

Within Lebanon, however, frustration with Hezbollah appears to be growing steadily.

“There is a rising sentiment across Lebanon that any U.S.-brokered negotiation track could be a rare opportunity to restore balance to the state,” said Rami Naeem, a Lebanese journalist and analyst with Jusoor News.

“Hezbollah’s ongoing military and political dominance is widely viewed as a core driver of the state’s collapse, and even a gradual or indirect opening of ties with Israel could help rebuild state institutions and restore their proper role.”

Mariam Kasrawani, a Lebanese analyst at Jusoor News, said criticism of the group is becoming increasingly explicit.

“It is getting harder to ignore how deep the crisis runs,” she said. “Some people are now stating it openly: Hezbollah has dragged all of Lebanon — and Shia communities in particular — into an extremely bad position.”

“I am not at all optimistic about this process,” said Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

“Lebanon is far too weak and divided to force Hezbollah to disarm. And Hezbollah is so deeply embedded in Lebanon’s political system. Any effort to disarm Hezbollah could spark a civil war.”

Instead, Seener noted, the talks are centered on limited, tactical goals.

“Discussions are focused on extending the ceasefire, Hezbollah’s withdrawal from border zones, and an expanded deployment of the Lebanese army. Disarmament is not a focus of the talks at all.”

This gap highlights what he described as the real nature of the negotiation process.

“I believe these talks are destined to fail,” Seener said. “In my view, Israel is currently only focused on managing the conflict, not resolving it.”

Adding to the uncertainty are reports from the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. may push Lebanon to repeal its 1955 Israel Boycott Law, which prohibits any contact with Israelis.

The report frames this potential move as a step toward normalization, but offers no supporting details and has not been confirmed by U.S. or Lebanese officials.

Digital reached out to the State Department and the Lebanese Embassy in Washington D.C. for comment, but did not receive a response before publication.