MEXICO CITY: Experts report that Mexican cartels are becoming more strategic in their choice of targets, frequently steering clear of intentional attacks on American tourists and citizens for fear of provoking a stronger U.S. response.
After the killing last month of Ruben “Nemesio” Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho,” the influential leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared on “Fox & Friends” to issue a warning to the drug gangs: “The Mexican drug cartels know not to lay a finger on a single American, or they will pay severe consequences under this president.”
Analysts state that measures taken by President Trump — such as classifying cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and conducting prominent overseas missions like the raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the strike that eliminated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani — have strengthened the cartels’ belief that the risks are now greater.
The core goal of Mexican drug cartels has always been to safeguard their income and avoid provoking a massive government crackdown. Security analysts and former U.S. officials note that this strategic thinking frequently involves refraining from intentionally targeting American tourists and citizens within Mexico.
“Naturally, drug cartels are frightened of President Trump after he labeled them terrorist organizations. This could be a key reason they refrain from attacking American citizens or tourists,” cartel specialist and activist Elena Chávez informed Fox News Digital.
She explained that the cartels have “evolved and stay well-aware of current events, particularly because they know there are rewards offered for their capture. This is why they fear the United States, a sentiment that has grown since Trump took office and designated the cartels as terrorist groups. They undoubtedly track all these developments and have individuals who update their leaders on the shifting landscape. The political will in the United States was very strong.”
Compounding the pressure, Trump addressed the newly formed Shield of the Americas Summit in Florida on Saturday—an alliance of 12 Latin American and Caribbean nations—which is uniting to confront the cartels, among other initiatives.
“We have to knock the hell out of them because they’re getting worse. They’re taking over their country. The cartels are running Mexico. We can’t have that. Too close to us,” Trump cautioned.
“Currently, over a million Americans are likely vacationing in their homes in Mexico. The drug cartels do not interfere with them or their properties. They understand that harming U.S. citizens would inevitably draw a reaction from the United States. An unwritten rule exists: you do not target American citizens; if you do, you will face U.S. retaliation. This is especially true under the current Trump administration,” Samuel González, a national security expert and former prosecutor for a specialized organized crime unit, told Fox News Digital.
Although notable killings of Americans in Mexico have happened, specialists characterize them as sporadic incidents that harm cartel interests, not as elements of a deliberate strategy.
“Several past cases show why cartels are extra cautious not to harm American citizens. A major one is the Camarena case: the 1985 kidnapping, torture, and murder of DEA agent Enrique ‘Kiki’ Camarena in Mexico, carried out by leaders of the Guadalajara Cartel (Rafael Caro Quintero, Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo) in revenge for the destruction of the ‘El Búfalo’ marijuana farm.
“This crime was a pivotal moment in U.S.-Mexico anti-drug relations, leading the DEA to launch ‘Operation Leyenda’ to apprehend the culprits and exposing collusion between traffickers and senior Mexican officials.”
He continued, “Another instance is the case of Agent Zapata. On February 15, 2011, assassins from the ‘Los Zetas’ cartel murdered ICE/HSI Special Agent Jaime Zapata and wounded Agent Victor Avila on a highway in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The killing led to intense U.S. pressure on Mexico to fight the cartels, culminating in the arrest of several involved Los Zetas members, including Julián Zapata Espinoza, also known as ‘El Piolín.’
“All these historical examples illustrate why cartels have learned that attacking American citizens is against their interests.”
Security experts indicate that cartels pay close attention to political discourse in Washington, especially remarks hinting at potential unilateral U.S. military intervention or broader cross-border missions. The public discussion about classifying cartels as terrorist organizations has regained momentum in recent years, with some legislators contending it would grant more resources to dismantle their financial and supply networks.
Former federal officials say the cartels’ reluctance to deliberately target Americans stems more from pragmatic business considerations than any ideological restraint. Prominent attacks on U.S. nationals can lead to massive media attention, diplomatic tensions, and heightened law enforcement actions that interrupt smuggling corridors.
Director General of the National Citizen Observatory, Francisco Rivas, said to Fox News Digital: “Drug traffickers are far more apprehensive about attacking a foreigner than a Mexican because Mexican authorities prosecute crimes against foreigners much more rigorously. The increased media scrutiny when the victim is a foreigner gives police and prosecutors greater motivation to investigate a kidnapping, extortion, disappearance, or murder.”
“In Mexico, over 90% of intentional homicides and disappearances involve individuals who had direct dealings with the cartels, mainly for business purposes. The issues tourists face in Mexico are comparable to those they might find in Miami, London, Rome, or Paris: theft, scams, and occasional extortion, but these instances are relatively minor. The majority of crimes in Mexico affect Mexicans, and most violent crimes have Mexican victims connected to cartels,” he stated.
Even though millions of Americans visit Mexico annually without trouble, law enforcement authorities stress that criminal violence is still pervasive in areas under cartel influence.
Officials from both nations agree that cartel choices are motivated by profit and survival instincts. Analysts broadly consider actions seen as likely to incite direct U.S. retaliation to be harmful to those core objectives.